Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Zenith, while the market favors PlayTime (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Zenith (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Zenith (57%) · Zenith at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Zenith
7
Zenith 57%
$4.0K
$-1.1K
42.7¢ → 49.5¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralZenith at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarm | PlayTimeavg 80¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$47.5 | — 12-7 (19) |
 handandfacetattoCTR | Zenithavg 41¢ | $2.6K | $1.4K | $-1.2K | 100% 58-0 (58) |
 LhordGryffinCTR | Zenithavg 48.8¢ | $773.89 | $785.35 | +$11.45 | — 13-0 (13) |
38 38791873984189 | PlayTimeavg 53.6¢ | $144.71 | $209.28 | +$64.57 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100 | Zenithavg 44¢ | $79.69 | $89.65 | +$9.96 | — |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR<$100 | Zenithavg 48¢ | $39 | $40.25 | +$1.25 | 6% 26-436 (462) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | PlayTimeavg 53.3¢ | $10.65 | $10.6 | -$0.05 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
Invested
$1,520
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$47.5
Record
—
12-7 (19)
handandfacetattoCTRInvested
$2,593.78
Value
$1.4K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
100%
58-0 (58)
LhordGryffinCTRInvested
$773.89
Value
$785.35
PnL
+$11.45
Record
—
13-0 (13)
Invested
$144.71
Value
$209.28
PnL
+$64.57
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$79.69
Value
$89.65
PnL
+$9.96
Record
—
Invested
$39
Value
$40.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
6%
26-436 (462)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$10.6
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.