Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold PlayTime, while the market favors Yellow Submarine (93%). 6 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (38%) · PlayTime at 7.0¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 12

PlayTime7¢Yellow Submarine93¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.1K

Combined PnL

$-5.7K

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 7¢

-87% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPlayTime at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime7%

Yellow Submarine93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine10 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares29,069

Combined PnL+$11.2K

PlayTime6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares35,704

Combined PnL$-16.9K

Yellow Submarine — 63%PlayTime — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PlayTime) and the top 1000 (14 on Yellow Submarine) disagree here.

sharpYellow Submarine 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYellow Submarine 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPlayTime 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Yellow Submarineavg 50.3¢	$12.9K	$10.3K	+$6.0K	29% 32-80 (112)
MA madar78	Yellow Submarineavg 48.1¢	$2.7K	$5.2K	+$2.5K	38% 26-43 (69)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Yellow Submarineavg 51.6¢	$3.9K	$4.8K	+$935.42	12% 27-191 (218)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 52¢	$11.2K	$2.6K	$-7.2K	48% 505-549 (1054)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 52¢	$9.5K	$1.8K	$-7.6K
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 46.2¢	$409.85	$799.18	+$467
QW qwerqr1251251	Yellow Submarineavg 52.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$1.2K	20% 37-150 (187)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yellow Submarineavg 53.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$177.76	56% 3862-3028 (6890)
GE GeorgeReCTR	PlayTimeavg 57¢	$10.3K	$1.3K	$-9.0K	52% 701-636 (1337)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	PlayTimeavg 55.9¢	$6.0K	$750.8	$-5.2K	47% 443-506 (949)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	PlayTimeavg 48¢	$685.59	$685.62	+$0.02	12% 28-203 (231)
VV VVVSSP	Yellow Submarineavg 49¢	$474.32	$619.52	+$145.2	26% 18-51 (69)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 41.9¢	$482.64	$568.51	+$85.88	53% 1830-1635 (3465)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 41.9¢	$260.03	$397.57	+$137.53
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 46.9¢	$222.6	$170.94	-$51.66
PA pauleta23	Yellow Submarineavg 46.1¢	$220	$444.1	+$224.1	31% 220-481 (701)
DO DotaBotRebornCTR	PlayTimeavg 48.6¢	$1.8K	$259.01	$-1.5K	63% 31-18 (49)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	PlayTimeavg 57¢	$303.77	$191.85	-$111.92	52% 41-38 (79)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	PlayTimeavg 57¢	$1.1K	$138.76	-$990.5	57% 523-401 (924)
LR lryyy<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 45.3¢	$43.16	$83.73	+$40.57	45% 239-290 (529)
GO GooGooGaga1<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 63¢	$56.69	$57.59	+$0.9	47% 17-19 (36)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.8	+$0.05	33% 307-625 (932)

UNIVERSEMVP

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$12,881.09

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

29%

32-80 (112)

madar78

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,673.16

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

38%

26-43 (69)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,898.75

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$935.42

Record

12%

27-191 (218)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$11,166.63

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

48%

505-549 (1054)

Both legs:

PlayTime$9,454.2652¢$-7.6K

Yellow Submarine$409.8546.2¢+$467

qwerqr1251251

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

20%

37-150 (187)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,253.22

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$177.76

Record

56%

3862-3028 (6890)

GeorgeReCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$10,279.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-9.0K

Record

52%

701-636 (1337)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$6,000

Value

$750.8

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

47%

443-506 (949)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$685.59

Value

$685.62

PnL

+$0.02

Record

12%

28-203 (231)

VVVSSP

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$474.32

Value

$619.52

PnL

+$145.2

Record

26%

18-51 (69)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$482.64

Value

$568.51

PnL

+$85.88

Record

53%

1830-1635 (3465)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$260.0341.9¢+$137.53

PlayTime$222.646.9¢-$51.66

pauleta23

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$220

Value

$444.1

PnL

+$224.1

Record

31%

220-481 (701)

DotaBotRebornCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,797.92

Value

$259.01

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

63%

31-18 (49)

PourpelNourpelCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$303.77

Value

$191.85

PnL

-$111.92

Record

52%

41-38 (79)

Sisyphus-CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,129.26

Value

$138.76

PnL

-$990.5

Record

57%

523-401 (924)

lryyy<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$43.16

Value

$83.73

PnL

+$40.57

Record

45%

239-290 (529)

GooGooGaga1<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$56.69

Value

$57.59

PnL

+$0.9

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

307-625 (932)

Research grade

AvoidPlayTime at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PlayTime) and the top 1000 (14 on Yellow Submarine) disagree here.

sharpYellow Submarine 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYellow Submarine 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPlayTime 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.