Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yellow Submarine (80%) · Yellow Submarine at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yellow Submarine
5
Yellow Submarine 80%
$1.4K
-$65.63
60.9¢ → 60.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYellow Submarine at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yellow Submarine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI biying88888 | Yellow Submarineavg 61¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$65.33 | 37% 116-201 (317) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yellow Submarineavg 59¢ | $85 | $55.03 | -$0 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100 | Yellow Submarineavg 59.5¢ | $11.9 | $11.6 | -$0.3 | 11% 26-203 (229) |
 forsenxdCTR<$100 | PlayTimeavg 37¢ | $7.59 | $7.59 | +$0 | 48% 356-380 (736) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Yellow Submarineavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.9 | +$0 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
Invested
$1,341.66
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$65.33
Record
37%
116-201 (317)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$85
Value
$55.03
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
Invested
$11.9
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$0.3
Record
11%
26-203 (229)
forsenxdCTR<$100Invested
$7.59
Value
$7.59
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
356-380 (736)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.