Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Synapse (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (30%) · PlayTime at 65¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

PlayTime65¢Team Synapse35¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 30%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$45.35

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 64.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime65%

Team Synapse36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime3 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares8,075

Combined PnL+$83.89

Team Synapse7 traders

Total Value$624.14

Total Shares1,748

Combined PnL-$38.55

PlayTime — 30%Team Synapse — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Synapse 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPlayTime 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Team Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tolkonevminus2	PlayTimeavg 60.5¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$222.03	63% 107-62 (169)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	PlayTimeavg 70¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$183.14	68% 117-55 (172)
Neimuking	PlayTimeavg 57¢	$570	$615	+$45	60% 70-46 (116)
alpheclabs2CTR	Team Synapseavg 38.9¢	$545.07	$490.21	-$54.87	47% 1320-1501 (2821)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 42.2¢	$70.07	$68.92	+$4.26	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 39.2¢	$19.8	$31.76	+$11.96	50% 21456-21716 (43172)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 38¢	$8.5	$9.63	+$1.13	48% 7430-7967 (15397)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 42.2¢	$10.3	$9.39	-$1.22	66% 24379-12452 (36831)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 43¢	$7.48	$8.47	+$0.99	47% 9480-10606 (20086)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 41.3¢	$6.2	$5.78	-$0.8	54% 10168-8540 (18708)

Tolkonevminus2

PlayTime

Invested

$2,984.89

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$222.03

Record

63%

107-62 (169)

UNIVERSEMVP

PlayTime

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$183.14

Record

68%

117-55 (172)

Neimuking

PlayTime

Invested

$570

Value

$615

PnL

+$45

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

alpheclabs2CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$545.07

Value

$490.21

PnL

-$54.87

Record

47%

1320-1501 (2821)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$70.07

Value

$68.92

PnL

+$4.26

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$19.8

Value

$31.76

PnL

+$11.96

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

OddstormCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$8.5

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

7430-7967 (15397)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$10.3

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$1.22

Record

66%

24379-12452 (36831)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$7.48

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$0.99

Record

47%

9480-10606 (20086)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Synapse 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPlayTime 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Team Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.