Dota 2: PlayTime vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner

14 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Power Rangers (54%) · Power Rangers at 81¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 15

PlayTime19¢Power Rangers81¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Power Rangers

Consensus Traders

Power Rangers 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.3K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 81¢

+51% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralPower Rangers at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Power Rangers

14 of 26 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime19%

Power Rangers81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Power Rangers14 traders

Total Value$32.6K

Total Shares40,098

Combined PnL+$8.6K

PlayTime12 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares24,994

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Power Rangers — 54%PlayTime — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Sunshine.Smile	Power Rangersavg 49.9¢	$4.2K	$6.9K	+$2.8K	— 8-4 (12)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Power Rangersavg 56.6¢	$4.0K	$5.9K	+$1.9K	47% 474-538 (1012)
SI Sisyphus-	Power Rangersavg 51.1¢	$3.3K	$5.4K	+$2.1K	57% 545-407 (952)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Power Rangersavg 51¢	$3.1K	$4.3K	+$1.2K	17% 17-83 (100)
BI BillBenter2026	Power Rangersavg 56.5¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$40.85	30% 246-583 (829)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	PlayTimeavg 43.6¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$905.12	48% 537-588 (1125)
SkritopoolniyCTR	PlayTimeavg 47.5¢	$4.3K	$2.5K	$-1.8K	10% 41-390 (431)
GX gxxyy	Power Rangersavg 69.3¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$406.6	69% 509-228 (737)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Power Rangersavg 55.5¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$70.21	56% 4066-3175 (7241)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 35.7¢	$1.7K	$839.06	-$63.73	36% 75-132 (207)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 57.3¢	$389.18	$564.2	+$251.45
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 35.7¢	$577.07	$274.85	-$315.18
alpheclabs2	Power Rangersavg 40.3¢	$796.95	$781.7	-$15.25	45% 300-362 (662)
maytopmay	Power Rangersavg 53.1¢	$383.1	$602.6	+$219.5	21% 56-206 (262)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	PlayTimeavg 46.2¢	$500.25	$579.17	+$78.92	20% 35-140 (175)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 48.5¢	$1.1K	$547.47	+$83.45	51% 850-801 (1651)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 48.5¢	$376.14	$422.36	+$57.37
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 45¢	$123.79	$125.11	+$26.08
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR	PlayTimeavg 50¢	$500	$525	+$25	60% 28-19 (47)
PO PourpelNourpel	Power Rangersavg 50¢	$305.25	$451.76	+$146.52	56% 74-57 (131)
Hawk.live	Power Rangersavg 74¢	$410.7	$441.23	+$30.53	57% 691-519 (1210)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	PlayTimeavg 48.3¢	$1.0K	$427.27	-$604.89	15% 39-216 (255)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	PlayTimeavg 48¢	$687.48	$236.32	-$451.16	14% 31-186 (217)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 50.2¢	$186.83	$232.02	+$45.19	14% 50-295 (345)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 50.2¢	$146.83	$181.35	+$34.52
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 30¢	$40	$50.67	+$10.67
latvian.demonCTR	PlayTimeavg 61¢	$213.5	$211.75	-$1.75	12% 64-458 (522)
poshposhCTR	PlayTimeavg 40.6¢	$176.58	$161.05	-$15.53	49% 1169-1236 (2405)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 56.6¢	$169.15	$146.52	-$22.63	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 56.6¢	$143.3	$110.23	-$33.07
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 40.2¢	$25.85	$36.28	+$10.44
SH shiifooCTR	PlayTimeavg 30¢	$150	$102.5	-$47.5	61% 1432-915 (2347)
SU suntori<$100	Power Rangersavg 42¢	$48	$58.85	+$10.86	46% 2743-3256 (5999)

Sunshine.Smile

Power Rangers

Invested

$4,159.61

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

—

8-4 (12)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Power Rangers

Invested

$4,000

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

47%

474-538 (1012)

Sisyphus-

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,326.2

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

57%

545-407 (952)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,060

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

17%

17-83 (100)

BillBenter2026

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,806.69

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$40.85

Record

30%

246-583 (829)

RandomVibecoderCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$4,029.21

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$905.12

Record

48%

537-588 (1125)

SkritopoolniyCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$4,335.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

10%

41-390 (431)

gxxyy

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,049.93

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$406.6

Record

69%

509-228 (737)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,661.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$70.21

Record

56%

4066-3175 (7241)

calculate10ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$1,679.77

Value

$839.06

PnL

-$63.73

Record

36%

75-132 (207)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$389.1857.3¢+$251.45

PlayTime$577.0735.7¢-$315.18

alpheclabs2

Power Rangers

Invested

$796.95

Value

$781.7

PnL

-$15.25

Record

45%

300-362 (662)

maytopmay

Power Rangers

Invested

$383.1

Value

$602.6

PnL

+$219.5

Record

21%

56-206 (262)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$500.25

Value

$579.17

PnL

+$78.92

Record

20%

35-140 (175)

NotJumpARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,148.35

Value

$547.47

PnL

+$83.45

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$376.1448.5¢+$57.37

PlayTime$123.7945¢+$26.08

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$500

Value

$525

PnL

+$25

Record

60%

28-19 (47)

PourpelNourpel

Power Rangers

Invested

$305.25

Value

$451.76

PnL

+$146.52

Record

56%

74-57 (131)

Hawk.live

Power Rangers

Invested

$410.7

Value

$441.23

PnL

+$30.53

Record

57%

691-519 (1210)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,032.16

Value

$427.27

PnL

-$604.89

Record

15%

39-216 (255)

r2d2v2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$687.48

Value

$236.32

PnL

-$451.16

Record

14%

31-186 (217)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$186.83

Value

$232.02

PnL

+$45.19

Record

14%

50-295 (345)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$146.8350.2¢+$34.52

PlayTime$4030¢+$10.67

latvian.demonCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$213.5

Value

$211.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

12%

64-458 (522)

poshposhCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$176.58

Value

$161.05

PnL

-$15.53

Record

49%

1169-1236 (2405)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$169.15

Value

$146.52

PnL

-$22.63

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$143.356.6¢-$33.07

PlayTime$25.8540.2¢+$10.44

shiifooCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$150

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$47.5

Record

61%

1432-915 (2347)

suntori<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$48

Value

$58.85

PnL

+$10.86

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Research grade

NeutralPower Rangers at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Power Rangers

14 of 26 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Power Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.