Dota 2: PlayTime vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (54%) · PlayTime at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

PlayTime81¢Power Rangers19¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$270.47

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 81¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime81%

Power Rangers19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,108

Combined PnL+$397.25

Power Rangers6 traders

Total Value$494.45

Total Shares2,213

Combined PnL-$126.77

PlayTime — 54%Power Rangers — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tolkonevminus2	PlayTimeavg 69.7¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$320.75	46% 69-80 (149)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 55.4¢	$664	$665	+$1	52% 833-779 (1612)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 55.4¢	$401.5	$507.5	+$106
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 50¢	$262.5	$157.5	-$105
CA calculate10	PlayTimeavg 69.8¢	$415.97	$416.97	+$1	36% 75-132 (207)
GA Gaditima	PlayTimeavg 60.7¢	$273.35	$337.5	+$64.15	48% 278-299 (577)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PlayTimeavg 75.2¢	$255.45	$266	+$10.55	56% 4065-3175 (7240)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Power Rangersavg 25.8¢	$358.34	$263.49	-$94.85	30% 244-582 (826)
VeryLucky888CTR	Power Rangersavg 39¢	$151.53	$137.94	-$13.6	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 80.9¢	$194.26	$79.71	-$28.41	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 80.9¢	$49.55	$51.13	-$6.82
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 25.6¢	$44.32	$28.58	-$21.59
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 23.6¢	$75.61	$59.33	-$16.29	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
poshposh<$100	PlayTimeavg 67.8¢	$43.62	$45.06	+$1.44	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
JU JuiceFarmCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 31.2¢	$18.46	$21.03	+$2.57	57% 46-35 (81)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	PlayTimeavg 81¢	$18.86	$14.81	-$0.8	41% 700-1011 (1711)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	PlayTimeavg 69¢	$10.35	$10.5	+$0.15	45% 381-474 (855)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 28¢	$13.42	$9.11	-$4.31	46% 497-591 (1088)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 38.5¢	$3.85	$3.55	-$0.3	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

Tolkonevminus2

PlayTime

Invested

$1,999.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$320.75

Record

46%

69-80 (149)

NotJumpARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$664

Value

$665

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Both legs:

PlayTime$401.555.4¢+$106

Power Rangers$262.550¢-$105

calculate10

PlayTime

Invested

$415.97

Value

$416.97

PnL

+$1

Record

36%

75-132 (207)

Gaditima

PlayTime

Invested

$273.35

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$64.15

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PlayTime

Invested

$255.45

Value

$266

PnL

+$10.55

Record

56%

4065-3175 (7240)

BillBenter2026CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$358.34

Value

$263.49

PnL

-$94.85

Record

30%

244-582 (826)

VeryLucky888CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$151.53

Value

$137.94

PnL

-$13.6

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

38791873984189ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$194.26

Value

$79.71

PnL

-$28.41

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

PlayTime$49.5580.9¢-$6.82

Power Rangers$44.3225.6¢-$21.59

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$75.61

Value

$59.33

PnL

-$16.29

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

poshposh<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$43.62

Value

$45.06

PnL

+$1.44

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

JuiceFarmCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$18.46

Value

$21.03

PnL

+$2.57

Record

57%

46-35 (81)

ameisgoat11<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$18.86

Value

$14.81

PnL

-$0.8

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

381-474 (855)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$13.42

Value

$9.11

PnL

-$4.31

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.