Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold PlayTime, while the market favors potn9ki (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Dota 2: PlayTime vs potn9ki - Game 1 Winner
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (43%) · PlayTime at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
PlayTime
7
PlayTime 43%
$8.9K
$-1.3K
76.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPlayTime at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR | PlayTimeavg 80.1¢ | $8.6K | $6.2K | $-2.4K | 59% 1036-727 (1763) |
 Skritopoolniy | potn9kiavg 19.8¢ | $895.62 | $1.9K | +$1.0K | 46% 680-798 (1478) |
 Medo3DCTR | PlayTimeavg 17.7¢ | $88.53 | $290 | +$201.47 | 41% 198-289 (487) |
RR rrooster | potn9kiavg 83¢ | $415 | $210 | -$205 | 63% 1411-829 (2240) |
PO PourpelNourpelCTR | PlayTimeavg 55.3¢ | $159.79 | $167.67 | +$7.88 | 51% 706-670 (1376) |
 alpheclabs2 | potn9kiavg 19.4¢ | $70.09 | $151.38 | +$81.29 | 47% 1774-1989 (3763) |
XU xuxuntao<$100 | potn9kiavg 89.5¢ | $11.01 | $5.17 | -$5.84 | 60% 135-90 (225) |
Invested
$8,587.49
Value
$6.2K
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
59%
1036-727 (1763)
SkritopoolniyInvested
$895.62
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
46%
680-798 (1478)
Medo3DCTRInvested
$88.53
Value
$290
PnL
+$201.47
Record
41%
198-289 (487)
Invested
$415
Value
$210
PnL
-$205
Record
63%
1411-829 (2240)
Invested
$159.79
Value
$167.67
PnL
+$7.88
Record
51%
706-670 (1376)
alpheclabs2Invested
$70.09
Value
$151.38
PnL
+$81.29
Record
47%
1774-1989 (3763)
Invested
$11.01
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$5.84
Record
60%
135-90 (225)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.