Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (67%) · PlayTime at 78¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 10

PlayTime78¢Nemiga Gaming22¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 77.5¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

8 of 12 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime78%

Nemiga Gaming23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime8 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares26,125

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Nemiga Gaming4 traders

Total Value$590.62

Total Shares2,380

Combined PnL-$341.38

PlayTime — 67%Nemiga Gaming — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	PlayTimeavg 67¢	$5.4K	$6.0K	+$646.68	53% 689-621 (1310)
RA RandomVibecoder	PlayTimeavg 62.4¢	$4.7K	$5.6K	+$909.54	48% 473-515 (988)
Medo3D	PlayTimeavg 57.1¢	$3.0K	$3.9K	+$899.57	3% 6-200 (206)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	PlayTimeavg 69.8¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$260.19	45% 403-486 (889)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 63.4¢	$698.46	$671.62	-$26.84	56% 3777-2944 (6721)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 63.4¢	$397.64	$492.23	+$94.59
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 36.1¢	$300.82	$179.4	-$121.43
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	PlayTimeavg 67¢	$262.48	$280.11	+$17.63	5% 10-175 (185)
CA calculate10CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 35.5¢	$646.16	$255.21	-$23.14	16% 14-71 (85)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 45¢	$380.7	$198.81	-$181.89	16% 7-36 (43)
JE jelly2026	PlayTimeavg 70¢	$414.23	$150.17	-$65.14	44% 17-22 (39)
BE BeastsCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 47.8¢	$287.01	$129	-$158.01	— 0-7 (7)
38 38791873984189	PlayTimeavg 56¢	$93.66	$115.39	+$21.73	48% 733-802 (1535)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 38¢	$102.62	$83.97	-$18.65	54% 1605-1351 (2956)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 38¢	$75.29	$49.52	-$25.77
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 59.5¢	$27.33	$34.45	+$7.12
LR lryyyARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 56.3¢	$49.28	$55.99	+$6.71	50% 128-129 (257)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 56.3¢	$37.18	$35.97	-$1.21
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 27.5¢	$12.1	$20.02	+$7.92
SE sentrio<$100	PlayTimeavg 67.5¢	$35.34	$36.83	+$1.5	29% 157-376 (533)
TE testBruno2CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 30.3¢	$109.96	$7.6	+$21.66	13% 4-28 (32)

GeorgeRe

PlayTime

Invested

$5,390.39

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$646.68

Record

53%

689-621 (1310)

RandomVibecoder

PlayTime

Invested

$4,712.42

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$909.54

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

Medo3D

PlayTime

Invested

$2,953.86

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$899.57

Record

6-200 (206)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

PlayTime

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$260.19

Record

45%

403-486 (889)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$698.46

Value

$671.62

PnL

-$26.84

Record

56%

3777-2944 (6721)

Both legs:

PlayTime$397.6463.4¢+$94.59

Nemiga Gaming$300.8236.1¢-$121.43

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

PlayTime

Invested

$262.48

Value

$280.11

PnL

+$17.63

Record

10-175 (185)

calculate10CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$646.16

Value

$255.21

PnL

-$23.14

Record

16%

14-71 (85)

VVVSSPCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$380.7

Value

$198.81

PnL

-$181.89

Record

16%

7-36 (43)

jelly2026

PlayTime

Invested

$414.23

Value

$150.17

PnL

-$65.14

Record

44%

17-22 (39)

BeastsCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$287.01

Value

$129

PnL

-$158.01

Record

—

0-7 (7)

38791873984189

PlayTime

Invested

$93.66

Value

$115.39

PnL

+$21.73

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$102.62

Value

$83.97

PnL

-$18.65

Record

54%

1605-1351 (2956)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$75.2938¢-$25.77

PlayTime$27.3359.5¢+$7.12

lryyyARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$49.28

Value

$55.99

PnL

+$6.71

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

Both legs:

PlayTime$37.1856.3¢-$1.21

Nemiga Gaming$12.127.5¢+$7.92

sentrio<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$35.34

Value

$36.83

PnL

+$1.5

Record

29%

157-376 (533)

testBruno2CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$109.96

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$21.66

Record

13%

4-28 (32)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

8 of 12 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.