Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (55%) · PlayTime at 77¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 10

PlayTime77¢Nemiga Gaming23¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.4K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 77¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime77%

Nemiga Gaming23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime6 traders

Total Value$29.3K

Total Shares39,025

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Nemiga Gaming5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares9,206

Combined PnL$-2.0K

PlayTime — 55%Nemiga Gaming — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	PlayTimeavg 71.4¢	$9.4K	$10.2K	+$807.67	45% 403-486 (889)
GE GeorgeRe	PlayTimeavg 70.2¢	$6.3K	$7.9K	+$1.6K	53% 689-621 (1310)
RA RandomVibecoder	PlayTimeavg 59.1¢	$4.0K	$5.3K	+$1.4K	48% 473-515 (988)
Medo3D	PlayTimeavg 54.8¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$17.54	3% 6-200 (206)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 61.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$92.81	56% 3774-2944 (6718)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 61.6¢	$642.54	$855.52	+$212.98
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 36.5¢	$603.6	$297.82	-$305.78
CA calculate10CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 33.3¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$492.06	17% 14-70 (84)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	PlayTimeavg 68.6¢	$2.4K	$777.52	-$70.05	16% 10-54 (64)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 49.5¢	$1.9K	$487.63	$-1.4K	16% 7-36 (43)
A3 a37932699CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 48¢	$216	$213.75	-$2.25	1% 2-178 (180)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 64.4¢	$139.43	$143.12	+$6.21	48% 721-776 (1497)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 34.8¢	$62.96	$77	+$14.13
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 64.4¢	$74.04	$66.13	-$7.92
TE testBruno2	PlayTimeavg 64¢	$336.45	$83.26	+$5.47	10% 3-28 (31)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 30.4¢	$74.25	$43.99	-$30.25	54% 1599-1345 (2944)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 27.4¢	$22.22	$10.13	-$12.09	50% 127-128 (255)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

PlayTime

Invested

$9,400

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$807.67

Record

45%

403-486 (889)

GeorgeRe

PlayTime

Invested

$6,309.25

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

689-621 (1310)

RandomVibecoder

PlayTime

Invested

$3,969.76

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

Medo3D

PlayTime

Invested

$5,007.36

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$17.54

Record

6-200 (206)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$1,246.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$92.81

Record

56%

3774-2944 (6718)

Both legs:

PlayTime$642.5461.6¢+$212.98

Nemiga Gaming$603.636.5¢-$305.78

calculate10CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,805.37

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$492.06

Record

17%

14-70 (84)

BackTestEoCaraio

PlayTime

Invested

$2,358.05

Value

$777.52

PnL

-$70.05

Record

16%

10-54 (64)

VVVSSPCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,932.85

Value

$487.63

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

16%

7-36 (43)

a37932699CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$216

Value

$213.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

2-178 (180)

38791873984189ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$139.43

Value

$143.12

PnL

+$6.21

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$62.9634.8¢+$14.13

PlayTime$74.0464.4¢-$7.92

testBruno2

PlayTime

Invested

$336.45

Value

$83.26

PnL

+$5.47

Record

10%

3-28 (31)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$74.25

Value

$43.99

PnL

-$30.25

Record

54%

1599-1345 (2944)

lryyyCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$22.22

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$12.09

Record

50%

127-128 (255)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.