Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (50%) · PlayTime at 83¢ · $571 held · ends Nov 10

PlayTime83¢Nemiga Gaming17¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$571.01

Combined PnL

-$9.35

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 83¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime83%

Nemiga Gaming17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime4 traders

Total Value$193.47

Total Shares274

Combined PnL-$16.46

Nemiga Gaming4 traders

Total Value$159.72

Total Shares641

Combined PnL+$7.11

PlayTime — 50%Nemiga Gaming — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 74.6¢	$238.06	$217.82	-$16.57	22% 134-483 (617)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 74.6¢	$135.66	$151.85	+$16.52
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 24.8¢	$99.06	$65.98	-$33.08
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PlayTimeavg 70.5¢	$142.76	$134.57	-$8.19	56% 3774-2944 (6718)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 25¢	$89.29	$89.29	+$0	50% 29-29 (58)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 22.3¢	$51.88	$58.18	+$6.3	63% 1075-638 (1713)
38 38791873984189<$100	PlayTimeavg 75.1¢	$53.45	$51.62	-$1.83	48% 721-776 (1497)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 23¢	$10.55	$11.01	+$0.46	54% 1599-1345 (2944)
CA calculate10<$100	PlayTimeavg 82¢	$19.17	$3.74	-$6.43	17% 14-70 (84)
PA Pan9X<$100	PlayTimeavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.55	+$0	48% 406-439 (845)
JU JuiceFarmCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 18¢	$0.9	$1.25	+$0.35	— 4-1 (5)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$238.06

Value

$217.82

PnL

-$16.57

Record

22%

134-483 (617)

Both legs:

PlayTime$135.6674.6¢+$16.52

Nemiga Gaming$99.0624.8¢-$33.08

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PlayTime

Invested

$142.76

Value

$134.57

PnL

-$8.19

Record

56%

3774-2944 (6718)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$89.29

Value

$89.29

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

29-29 (58)

vibing123CTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$51.88

Value

$58.18

PnL

+$6.3

Record

63%

1075-638 (1713)

38791873984189<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$53.45

Value

$51.62

PnL

-$1.83

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$10.55

Value

$11.01

PnL

+$0.46

Record

54%

1599-1345 (2944)

calculate10<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$19.17

Value

$3.74

PnL

-$6.43

Record

17%

14-70 (84)

Pan9X<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

406-439 (845)

JuiceFarmCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.