Dota 2: PlayTime vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

16 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (50%) · LEGION at 84¢ · $87K held · ended Nov 7

PlayTime17¢LEGION83¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$87.2K

Combined PnL

$-7.6K

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 83.5¢

+44% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

16 of 32 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime17%

LEGION84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime16 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares76,402

Combined PnL$-11.0K

LEGION16 traders

Total Value$61.4K

Total Shares94,989

Combined PnL+$3.4K

PlayTime — 50%LEGION — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	PlayTimeavg 40.1¢	$10.8K	$13.0K	+$2.2K	59% 992-703 (1695)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	LEGIONavg 53.1¢	$8.0K	$9.2K	-$460.73	43% 76-100 (176)
Skritopoolniy	LEGIONavg 46.9¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$157.36	46% 670-771 (1441)
Tolkonevminus2	LEGIONavg 72.6¢	$5.0K	$6.5K	+$1.5K	61% 108-68 (176)
RA RandomVibecoder	LEGIONavg 56.4¢	$4.9K	$6.4K	+$1.5K	48% 858-913 (1771)
0X 0xNuttawut	LEGIONavg 44.9¢	$2.8K	$5.7K	+$2.9K	51% 1345-1318 (2663)
GX gxxyy	LEGIONavg 76.7¢	$4.7K	$5.6K	+$881.43	70% 528-231 (759)
SI Sisyphus-	LEGIONavg 60.5¢	$7.9K	$5.3K	$-2.6K	55% 828-686 (1514)
Medo3D	LEGIONavg 57.2¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$165.86	41% 182-264 (446)
YA yadens	LEGIONavg 76¢	$3.3K	$4.0K	+$712.43	71% 191-79 (270)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	PlayTimeavg 43¢	$6.0K	$3.5K	$-2.5K	70% 314-136 (450)
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	PlayTimeavg 46.6¢	$4.0K	$2.9K	+$1.0K	78% 83-23 (106)
Sunshine.Smile	LEGIONavg 58.4¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	-$446.73	58% 2037-1486 (3523)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	PlayTimeavg 41.1¢	$8.9K	$1.9K	$-6.1K	68% 125-60 (185)
PO PourpelNourpel	LEGIONavg 87.6¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$239.49	52% 685-629 (1314)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	PlayTimeavg 39.7¢	$2.2K	$1.0K	$-1.2K	50% 567-574 (1141)
TR TrunglCTR	PlayTimeavg 61.1¢	$1.2K	$1,000	-$179.99	61% 412-267 (679)
WH whosay	LEGIONavg 57.1¢	$1.0K	$878.73	-$134.37	57% 1291-969 (2260)
maytopmay	LEGIONavg 64.2¢	$1.3K	$878.6	-$464.08	60% 316-208 (524)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	PlayTimeavg 56.5¢	$791.99	$707.89	-$84.1	55% 3880-3232 (7112)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	PlayTimeavg 59¢	$559.91	$540.93	-$18.98	54% 2613-2242 (4855)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	PlayTimeavg 40.9¢	$2.1K	$402.62	$-1.6K	62% 74-46 (120)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	PlayTimeavg 55.6¢	$2.0K	$273.22	$-1.8K	68% 637-306 (943)
R2 r2d2v2	LEGIONavg 55¢	$39.95	$263.85	-$24.54	54% 307-262 (569)
MA madar78	LEGIONavg 83.5¢	$9.0K	$252.48	+$614.23	67% 77-38 (115)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$10,767.95

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

59%

992-703 (1695)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

LEGION

Invested

$7,958.29

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$460.73

Record

43%

76-100 (176)

Skritopoolniy

LEGION

Invested

$8,444.18

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$157.36

Record

46%

670-771 (1441)

Tolkonevminus2

LEGION

Invested

$5,002.55

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

61%

108-68 (176)

RandomVibecoder

LEGION

Invested

$4,883.93

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

48%

858-913 (1771)

0xNuttawut

LEGION

Invested

$2,795.9

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

51%

1345-1318 (2663)

gxxyy

LEGION

Invested

$4,724.67

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$881.43

Record

70%

528-231 (759)

Sisyphus-

LEGION

Invested

$7,878.21

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

55%

828-686 (1514)

Medo3D

LEGION

Invested

$4,352.07

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$165.86

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

yadens

LEGION

Invested

$3,289.79

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$712.43

Record

71%

191-79 (270)

qwerqr1251251CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$5,956.85

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

70%

314-136 (450)

GooGooGaga1CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$4,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

78%

83-23 (106)

Sunshine.Smile

LEGION

Invested

$3,121.39

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$446.73

Record

58%

2037-1486 (3523)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$8,891.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

68%

125-60 (185)

PourpelNourpel

LEGION

Invested

$1,411.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$239.49

Record

52%

685-629 (1314)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,171.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

567-574 (1141)

TrunglCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,209.12

Value

$1,000

PnL

-$179.99

Record

61%

412-267 (679)

whosay

LEGION

Invested

$1,013.1

Value

$878.73

PnL

-$134.37

Record

57%

1291-969 (2260)

maytopmay

LEGION

Invested

$1,342.68

Value

$878.6

PnL

-$464.08

Record

60%

316-208 (524)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$791.99

Value

$707.89

PnL

-$84.1

Record

55%

3880-3232 (7112)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

PlayTime

Invested

$559.91

Value

$540.93

PnL

-$18.98

Record

54%

2613-2242 (4855)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,096.27

Value

$402.62

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

62%

74-46 (120)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,024.5

Value

$273.22

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

68%

637-306 (943)

r2d2v2

LEGION

Invested

$39.95

Value

$263.85

PnL

-$24.54

Record

54%

307-262 (569)

madar78

LEGION

Invested

$8,982.74

Value

$252.48

PnL

+$614.23

Record

67%

77-38 (115)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

16 of 32 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.