Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold PuckChamp (70%) · PuckChamp at 92¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10

PuckChamp92¢Zero Tenacity8¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PuckChamp

Consensus Traders

PuckChamp 70%

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$97.75

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 92¢

+62% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PuckChamp92%

Zero Tenacity8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PuckChamp7 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares9,186

Combined PnL+$437.18

Zero Tenacity3 traders

Total Value$450.08

Total Shares2,439

Combined PnL-$534.93

PuckChamp — 70%Zero Tenacity — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	PuckChampavg 57.8¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$552.31	3% 6-200 (206)
BI BillBenter2026	PuckChampavg 65¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$204.54	14% 28-178 (206)
SI Sisyphus-	PuckChampavg 47.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$96.43	3% 8-236 (244)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	PuckChampavg 63¢	$1.7K	$445.74	+$171.01	11% 5-39 (44)
CA calculate10CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 21.8¢	$705.95	$264.54	-$52.7	17% 9-43 (52)
LR lryyy	PuckChampavg 66.2¢	$192.83	$189.51	-$3.32	60% 37-25 (62)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 63¢	$599.15	$142.66	-$456.5	50% 14-14 (28)
PO PourpelNourpel	PuckChampavg 48.2¢	$83.65	$116.24	+$32.59	48% 11-12 (23)
maytopmay	PuckChampavg 52.2¢	$118.42	$47.37	-$14.44	5% 8-139 (147)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 44.1¢	$68.62	$42.88	-$25.73	30% 104-243 (347)

RandomVibecoder

PuckChamp

Invested

$3,414.82

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$552.31

Record

6-200 (206)

BillBenter2026

PuckChamp

Invested

$2,166.1

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$204.54

Record

14%

28-178 (206)

Sisyphus-

PuckChamp

Invested

$1,117.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$96.43

Record

8-236 (244)

BackTestEoCaraio

PuckChamp

Invested

$1,715.18

Value

$445.74

PnL

+$171.01

Record

11%

5-39 (44)

calculate10CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$705.95

Value

$264.54

PnL

-$52.7

Record

17%

9-43 (52)

lryyy

PuckChamp

Invested

$192.83

Value

$189.51

PnL

-$3.32

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$599.15

Value

$142.66

PnL

-$456.5

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

PourpelNourpel

PuckChamp

Invested

$83.65

Value

$116.24

PnL

+$32.59

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

maytopmay

PuckChamp

Invested

$118.42

Value

$47.37

PnL

-$14.44

Record

8-139 (147)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$68.62

Value

$42.88

PnL

-$25.73

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PuckChamp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.