Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold PuckChamp (50%) · PuckChamp at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10

PuckChamp>99¢Zero Tenacity<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PuckChamp

Consensus Traders

PuckChamp 50%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

-$532.42

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 100¢

+100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PuckChamp100%

Zero Tenacity0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PuckChamp5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,311

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Zero Tenacity5 traders

Total Value$46.35

Total Shares4,739

Combined PnL$-2.9K

PuckChamp — 50%Zero Tenacity — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on PuckChamp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPuckChamp 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPuckChamp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000PuckChamp 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	PuckChampavg 40.3¢	$3.6K	$6.2K	+$2.6K	3% 6-200 (206)
BI BillBenter2026	PuckChampavg 80.9¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$326.89	14% 28-178 (206)
CA calculate10	PuckChampavg 79.6¢	$396.4	$463.89	+$67.49	17% 9-43 (52)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	PuckChampavg 66.2¢	$221.82	$273.85	+$52.03	11% 5-39 (44)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 32¢	$59.24	$44.05	-$15.19	60% 37-25 (62)
PA pauleta23<$100	PuckChampavg 55.6¢	$20	$35.93	+$15.93	20% 56-219 (275)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 66.4¢	$1.9K	$1.44	$-1.9K	3% 8-236 (244)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 59.2¢	$895.08	$0.76	-$894.32	50% 14-14 (28)
maytopmayCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 68.9¢	$102.78	$0.07	-$102.71	5% 8-139 (147)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 10¢	$6.38	$0.03	-$6.35	47% 37-42 (79)

RandomVibecoder

PuckChamp

Invested

$3,610.89

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

6-200 (206)

BillBenter2026

PuckChamp

Invested

$1,681.64

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$326.89

Record

14%

28-178 (206)

calculate10

PuckChamp

Invested

$396.4

Value

$463.89

PnL

+$67.49

Record

17%

9-43 (52)

BackTestEoCaraio

PuckChamp

Invested

$221.82

Value

$273.85

PnL

+$52.03

Record

11%

5-39 (44)

lryyyCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$59.24

Value

$44.05

PnL

-$15.19

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

pauleta23<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$20

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$15.93

Record

20%

56-219 (275)

Sisyphus-CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,909.94

Value

$1.44

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

8-236 (244)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$895.08

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$894.32

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

maytopmayCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$102.78

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$102.71

Record

8-139 (147)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$6.38

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.35

Record

47%

37-42 (79)

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on PuckChamp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPuckChamp 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPuckChamp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000PuckChamp 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PuckChamp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.