Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (67%) · Spirit Academy at 73¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 11

PuckChamp28¢Spirit Academy72¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit Academy

Consensus Traders

Spirit Academy 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

$829.46

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 72.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PuckChamp28%

Spirit Academy73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy4 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares26,725

Combined PnL+$1.4K

PuckChamp2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares8,448

Combined PnL-$585.59

Spirit Academy — 67%PuckChamp — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Spirit Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit Academy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPuckChamp 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spirit Academy 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Spirit Academyavg 67.1¢	$15.8K	$17.1K	+$1.3K	57% 514-393 (907)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Spirit Academyavg 71.3¢	$4.5K	$3.9K	-$261.42	48% 491-535 (1026)
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 71.3¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$46.4
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 34.2¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$307.81
Medo3DCTR	PuckChampavg 31¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$569.81	6% 14-216 (230)
GO GooGooGaga1	Spirit Academyavg 66¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$75.76	43% 13-17 (30)
QW qwerqr1251251	Spirit Academyavg 72.2¢	$798.97	$801.89	+$2.92	15% 25-143 (168)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Spirit Academyavg 71.6¢	$455.68	$452.48	-$3.2	11% 24-201 (225)
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 71.6¢	$330.98	$346.64	+$15.65
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 29.5¢	$124.7	$105.84	-$18.86
PO PourpelNourpel	Spirit Academyavg 65¢	$307.77	$360.37	+$52.6	51% 30-29 (59)
alpheclabs2CTR	PuckChampavg 28¢	$107.52	$91.74	-$15.78	46% 109-130 (239)

Sisyphus-

Spirit Academy

Invested

$15,848.45

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$4,494.69

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$261.42

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy$2,736.7371.3¢+$46.4

PuckChamp$1,395.3434.2¢-$307.81

Medo3DCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$2,496.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$569.81

Record

14-216 (230)

GooGooGaga1

Spirit Academy

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$75.76

Record

43%

13-17 (30)

qwerqr1251251

Spirit Academy

Invested

$798.97

Value

$801.89

PnL

+$2.92

Record

15%

25-143 (168)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$455.68

Value

$452.48

PnL

-$3.2

Record

11%

24-201 (225)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy$330.9871.6¢+$15.65

PuckChamp$124.729.5¢-$18.86

PourpelNourpel

Spirit Academy

Invested

$307.77

Value

$360.37

PnL

+$52.6

Record

51%

30-29 (59)

alpheclabs2CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$107.52

Value

$91.74

PnL

-$15.78

Record

46%

109-130 (239)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Spirit Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit Academy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPuckChamp 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spirit Academy 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.