Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Inner Circle (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle (73%) · Inner Circle at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

PuckChamp<1¢Inner Circle>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inner Circle

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle 73%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$183.22

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 99.7¢

+35% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PuckChamp0%

Inner Circle100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle11 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,844

Combined PnL+$347.95

PuckChamp4 traders

Total Value$75.61

Total Shares987

Combined PnL-$164.72

Inner Circle — 73%PuckChamp — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPuckChamp 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000PuckChamp 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11	Inner Circleavg 67.1¢	$729.09	$900.4	+$174.31	52% 8574-7820 (16394)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Inner Circleavg 69.2¢	$790.5	$797.14	+$6.64	53% 1127-1008 (2135)
RA RandomVibecoder	Inner Circleavg 71.2¢	$689.99	$789.26	+$99.27	49% 832-878 (1710)
poshposh	Inner Circleavg 82.1¢	$344.5	$370.07	+$25.57	57% 12255-9317 (21572)
GA Gaditima	Inner Circleavg 87.6¢	$286.48	$326.74	+$40.26	48% 7082-7768 (14850)
alpheclabs2	Inner Circleavg 91¢	$172.9	$172.9	+$0	47% 1157-1313 (2470)
SL SlickRick123	Inner Circleavg 80¢	$135.75	$154.36	+$18.61	48% 5269-5761 (11030)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	PuckChampavg 34.6¢	$86.5	$66.25	-$20.25	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Inner Circleavg 81.8¢	$42.86	$41.15	-$1.71	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
LR lryyy<$100	Inner Circleavg 91.7¢	$47.21	$27.03	-$20.18	47% 9215-10335 (19550)
SE sentrio<$100	Inner Circleavg 58.7¢	$19.13	$25.58	+$6.45	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
SH shiifoo<$100	Inner Circleavg 86.6¢	$8.66	$7.4	-$1.26	59% 3711-2576 (6287)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	PuckChampavg 11.8¢	$12.69	$4.31	-$8.38	59% 31848-22485 (54333)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	PuckChampavg 11.4¢	$12.19	$4.26	-$7.93	51% 11897-11293 (23190)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	PuckChampavg 24.7¢	$128.95	$0.78	-$128.17	47% 11065-12394 (23459)

ameisgoat11

Inner Circle

Invested

$729.09

Value

$900.4

PnL

+$174.31

Record

52%

8574-7820 (16394)

TommyLeePeeca

Inner Circle

Invested

$790.5

Value

$797.14

PnL

+$6.64

Record

53%

1127-1008 (2135)

RandomVibecoder

Inner Circle

Invested

$689.99

Value

$789.26

PnL

+$99.27

Record

49%

832-878 (1710)

poshposh

Inner Circle

Invested

$344.5

Value

$370.07

PnL

+$25.57

Record

57%

12255-9317 (21572)

Gaditima

Inner Circle

Invested

$286.48

Value

$326.74

PnL

+$40.26

Record

48%

7082-7768 (14850)

alpheclabs2

Inner Circle

Invested

$172.9

Value

$172.9

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1157-1313 (2470)

SlickRick123

Inner Circle

Invested

$135.75

Value

$154.36

PnL

+$18.61

Record

48%

5269-5761 (11030)

cigarettesCTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$86.5

Value

$66.25

PnL

-$20.25

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$42.86

Value

$41.15

PnL

-$1.71

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

lryyy<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$47.21

Value

$27.03

PnL

-$20.18

Record

47%

9215-10335 (19550)

sentrio<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$19.13

Value

$25.58

PnL

+$6.45

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

shiifoo<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$8.66

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$1.26

Record

59%

3711-2576 (6287)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$12.69

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$8.38

Record

59%

31848-22485 (54333)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$12.19

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$7.93

Record

51%

11897-11293 (23190)

topdogbigboiCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$128.95

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$128.17

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPuckChamp 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000PuckChamp 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.