Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (43%) · Team Yandex at 57¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 29
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Neutral
Team Yandex
7
Team Yandex 43%
$28.0K
$274.88
57.7¢ → 57.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Yandex at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | Team Yandexavg 58¢ | $11.6K | $11.7K | +$100 | 58% 888-649 (1537) |
TR TrippleEX | Team Yandexavg 57.2¢ | $5.7K | $5.8K | +$33.12 | 57% 288-213 (501) |
VI vibing123CTR | PARIVISIONavg 42¢ | $5.0K | $5.1K | +$60 | 52% 1553-1433 (2986) |
DR drunkdegenerateCTR | PARIVISIONavg 42¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$30 | 54% 193-163 (356) |
TG tghj20CTR | PARIVISIONavg 43.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$8.23 | 50% 53-53 (106) |
 eblomixerCTR | PARIVISIONavg 41¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$60 | 57% 491-371 (862) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Team Yandexavg 58¢ | $5 | $5 | -$0 | 47% 2159-2455 (4614) |
Invested
$11,599.99
Value
$11.7K
PnL
+$100
Record
58%
888-649 (1537)
Invested
$5,716.88
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$33.12
Record
57%
288-213 (501)
Invested
$5,040
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$60
Record
52%
1553-1433 (2986)
Invested
$2,520
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$30
Record
54%
193-163 (356)
Invested
$1,621
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$8.23
Record
50%
53-53 (106)
eblomixerCTRInvested
$1,230
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$60
Record
57%
491-371 (862)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
2159-2455 (4614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.