Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Team Liquid, while the market favors PARIVISION (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (67%) · Team Liquid at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Team Liquid
6
Team Liquid 67%
$1.6K
-$1.72
45.4¢ → 45.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Liquid at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors PARIVISION 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO pol2131 | PARIVISIONavg 55¢ | $440 | $440 | -$4 | 45% 395-476 (871) |
MR MrConsistencyCTR | Team Liquidavg 45¢ | $300 | $300 | +$3.33 | 39% 544-840 (1384) |
VI vibing123CTR | Team Liquidavg 45¢ | $295.49 | $298.77 | +$3.28 | 52% 1541-1425 (2966) |
TR tripleh0829 | PARIVISIONavg 55¢ | $279.09 | $279.09 | +$0 | 68% 189-87 (276) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Team Liquidavg 47¢ | $235 | $225 | -$7.5 | 53% 5495-4840 (10335) |
 eblomixerCTR<$100 | Team Liquidavg 43¢ | $54.38 | $56.91 | +$3.16 | 57% 484-367 (851) |
Invested
$440
Value
$440
PnL
-$4
Record
45%
395-476 (871)
Invested
$300
Value
$300
PnL
+$3.33
Record
39%
544-840 (1384)
Invested
$295.49
Value
$298.77
PnL
+$3.28
Record
52%
1541-1425 (2966)
Invested
$279.09
Value
$279.09
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
189-87 (276)
Invested
$235
Value
$225
PnL
-$7.5
Record
53%
5495-4840 (10335)
eblomixerCTR<$100Invested
$54.38
Value
$56.91
PnL
+$3.16
Record
57%
484-367 (851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.