Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (46%) · PARIVISION at 77¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 28

PARIVISION77¢Team Liquid23¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

-$9.41

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 76.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION77%

Team Liquid24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION6 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares14,984

Combined PnL+$204.93

Team Liquid7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares22,726

Combined PnL-$214.34

PARIVISION — 46%Team Liquid — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OA oafloaf	PARIVISIONavg 81¢	$8.0K	$8.2K	+$197.54	71% 141-58 (199)
OJ ojgtubvdt	PARIVISIONavg 82¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$40	62% 641-385 (1026)
SI SineNooneEICTR	Team Liquidavg 19¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$222.38	55% 913-750 (1663)
CORGIICTR	Team Liquidavg 17¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	41% 385-555 (940)
PN pnhctARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 80¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$22.93	54% 450-390 (840)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 80¢	$795.71	$761.23	-$34.47
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 22.4¢	$242.77	$254.31	+$11.54
OM omnibus-076daa	PARIVISIONavg 81.9¢	$450.21	$420.4	-$29.81	49% 18592-19012 (37604)
VO Volodyabandit	PARIVISIONavg 83.3¢	$410	$408.67	-$1.33	75% 255-83 (338)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Team Liquidavg 18.5¢	$116.5	$141.75	+$25.25	58% 18390-13495 (31885)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	Team Liquidavg 20¢	$112.5	$95.62	-$8.44	39% 544-840 (1384)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Team Liquidavg 19¢	$69.48	$62.17	-$7.31	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100	PARIVISIONavg 80.8¢	$58.33	$56.79	-$1.54	54% 1052-892 (1944)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Team Liquidavg 19¢	$6.93	$6.2	-$0.73	53% 327-291 (618)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Team Liquidavg 19¢	$6.93	$6.2	-$0.73	53% 355-309 (664)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	PARIVISIONavg 80¢	$4	$4.08	+$0.08	47% 2037-2342 (4379)

oafloaf

PARIVISION

Invested

$8,000.35

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$197.54

Record

71%

141-58 (199)

ojgtubvdt

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,279.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$40

Record

62%

641-385 (1026)

SineNooneEICTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,140.84

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$222.38

Record

55%

913-750 (1663)

CORGIICTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,667.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

385-555 (940)

pnhctARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,038.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$22.93

Record

54%

450-390 (840)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$795.7180¢-$34.47

Team Liquid$242.7722.4¢+$11.54

omnibus-076daa

PARIVISION

Invested

$450.21

Value

$420.4

PnL

-$29.81

Record

49%

18592-19012 (37604)

Volodyabandit

PARIVISION

Invested

$410

Value

$408.67

PnL

-$1.33

Record

75%

255-83 (338)

BillBenter2026CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$116.5

Value

$141.75

PnL

+$25.25

Record

58%

18390-13495 (31885)

MrConsistencyCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$112.5

Value

$95.62

PnL

-$8.44

Record

39%

544-840 (1384)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$69.48

Value

$62.17

PnL

-$7.31

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

TommyLeePeeca<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$58.33

Value

$56.79

PnL

-$1.54

Record

54%

1052-892 (1944)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$6.93

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

327-291 (618)

adururuCTR<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$6.93

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

ameisgoat11<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2037-2342 (4379)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.