Dota 2: PARIVISION vs DO KONCA (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (73%) · PARIVISION at 95¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

PARIVISION95¢DO KONCA5¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 73%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$82.99

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 94.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION95%

DO KONCA6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION8 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares10,696

Combined PnL+$161.01

DO KONCA3 traders

Total Value$134.23

Total Shares2,359

Combined PnL-$78.02

PARIVISION — 73%DO KONCA — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	PARIVISIONavg 91.8¢	$7.2K	$5.4K	-$5.58	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
YI yishiwucheng	PARIVISIONavg 87.6¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$76.81	56% 55-43 (98)
AM ameisgoat11	PARIVISIONavg 87.4¢	$924.99	$924.43	+$70.38	38% 492-810 (1302)
NO NotJump	PARIVISIONavg 55.4¢	$644	$640	-$4	54% 455-382 (837)
38 38791873984189	PARIVISIONavg 88.2¢	$200.69	$196.06	+$13.37	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	DO KONCAavg 8.3¢	$120.48	$80.23	-$40.25	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
alpheclabs2<$100	PARIVISIONavg 84¢	$56.78	$63.54	+$6.76	46% 196-234 (430)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 10¢	$80	$48	-$32	19% 204-894 (1098)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	PARIVISIONavg 83¢	$26.1	$29.1	+$3	41% 257-370 (627)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 11.8¢	$11.77	$6	-$5.77	46% 161-187 (348)
PA Pan9X<$100	PARIVISIONavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.72	+$0.27	49% 1077-1133 (2210)

suntori

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,165.22

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$5.58

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

yishiwucheng

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,998.79

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$76.81

Record

56%

55-43 (98)

ameisgoat11

PARIVISION

Invested

$924.99

Value

$924.43

PnL

+$70.38

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

NotJump

PARIVISION

Invested

$644

Value

$640

PnL

-$4

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

38791873984189

PARIVISION

Invested

$200.69

Value

$196.06

PnL

+$13.37

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$120.48

Value

$80.23

PnL

-$40.25

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

alpheclabs2<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$56.78

Value

$63.54

PnL

+$6.76

Record

46%

196-234 (430)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$80

Value

$48

PnL

-$32

Record

19%

204-894 (1098)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$26.1

Value

$29.1

PnL

+$3

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

GaditimaCTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$11.77

Value

PnL

-$5.77

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

Pan9X<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.