Dota 2: PARIVISION vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

28 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (53%) · PARIVISION at 100¢ · $221K held · ends Nov 15

PARIVISION>99¢GamerLegion<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 53%

Total Value

$221.4K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 99.8¢

+33% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

28 of 53 top traders (53%)25 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION100%

GamerLegion0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION28 traders

Total Value$218.3K

Total Shares218,862

Combined PnL+$52.5K

GamerLegion25 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares209,442

Combined PnL$-49.7K

PARIVISION — 53%GamerLegion — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 13

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 69% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedPARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 53% · 53

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vtcchampion52	PARIVISIONavg 75.5¢	$69.6K	$92.0K	+$22.4K	48% 880-945 (1825)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	PARIVISIONavg 71.3¢	$25.0K	$35.0K	+$10.0K	47% 477-547 (1024)
MD MD14	PARIVISIONavg 76.9¢	$17.0K	$22.0K	+$5.0K	78% 28-8 (36)
GE GeorgeRe	PARIVISIONavg 71.1¢	$14.9K	$20.9K	+$6.0K	53% 724-649 (1373)
Woaifacai	PARIVISIONavg 73¢	$7.1K	$9.7K	+$2.6K	63% 267-160 (427)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	PARIVISIONavg 90.6¢	$8.8K	$6.0K	+$1.2K	37% 67-113 (180)
DO DotaBotReborn	PARIVISIONavg 66¢	$3.8K	$5.8K	+$2.0K	70% 57-25 (82)
eblomixer	PARIVISIONavg 68¢	$3.4K	$4.2K	+$757.48	5% 11-216 (227)
PI pipipi150	PARIVISIONavg 79.2¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$163.91	67% 82-40 (122)
YA yadens	PARIVISIONavg 98.9¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$32.17	30% 37-88 (125)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	PARIVISIONavg 70¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$746.05	63% 33-19 (52)
dodsterbotCTR	GamerLegionavg 27.3¢	$5.7K	$2.3K	$-3.3K	45% 515-623 (1138)
GX gxxyy	PARIVISIONavg 80¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$395	69% 515-231 (746)
shibaijiaoyiyuan	PARIVISIONavg 91¢	$2.9K	$1.4K	-$895.22	50% 19-19 (38)
Vladooos	PARIVISIONavg 72.9¢	$991.65	$1.4K	+$365.64	63% 50-29 (79)
RR rrooster	PARIVISIONavg 73.5¢	$991.99	$1.3K	+$351.24	49% 55-57 (112)
KA KaguyaNg	PARIVISIONavg 74¢	$978.34	$1.3K	+$337.13	— 7-3 (10)
BA babyboy9	PARIVISIONavg 77¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$296.08	60% 39-26 (65)
FE fengshengshuiqi88	PARIVISIONavg 99.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.78	— 13-2 (15)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PARIVISIONavg 80.3¢	$831.97	$814.99	-$16.98	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
QW qwerqr1251251	PARIVISIONavg 81.7¢	$599	$731.71	+$132.71	26% 59-165 (224)
Hawk.live	PARIVISIONavg 82¢	$526.83	$639.27	+$112.43	57% 699-527 (1226)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	PARIVISIONavg 77¢	$2.2K	$199.52	+$591.3	73% 27-10 (37)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	GamerLegionavg 27¢	$962.44	$125.11	-$820.26	58% 106-78 (184)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	GamerLegionavg 30¢	$287.04	$101.08	-$181.86	46% 621-730 (1351)

vtcchampion52

PARIVISION

Invested

$69,623.35

Value

$92.0K

PnL

+$22.4K

Record

48%

880-945 (1825)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

PARIVISION

Invested

$25,000

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

47%

477-547 (1024)

MD14

PARIVISION

Invested

$16,963.61

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

78%

28-8 (36)

GeorgeRe

PARIVISION

Invested

$14,934.3

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

53%

724-649 (1373)

Woaifacai

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,126.87

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

63%

267-160 (427)

UNIVERSEMVP

PARIVISION

Invested

$8,753.29

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

37%

67-113 (180)

DotaBotReborn

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,813.64

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

70%

57-25 (82)

eblomixer

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,432.22

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$757.48

Record

11-216 (227)

pipipi150

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,752.67

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$163.91

Record

67%

82-40 (122)

yadens

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,612.41

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$32.17

Record

30%

37-88 (125)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,770.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$746.05

Record

63%

33-19 (52)

dodsterbotCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,669.33

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

45%

515-623 (1138)

gxxyy

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,600

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$395

Record

69%

515-231 (746)

shibaijiaoyiyuan

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,896.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$895.22

Record

50%

19-19 (38)

Vladooos

PARIVISION

Invested

$991.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$365.64

Record

63%

50-29 (79)

rrooster

PARIVISION

Invested

$991.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$351.24

Record

49%

55-57 (112)

KaguyaNg

PARIVISION

Invested

$978.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$337.13

Record

—

7-3 (10)

babyboy9

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$296.08

Record

60%

39-26 (65)

fengshengshuiqi88

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,259.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.78

Record

—

13-2 (15)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PARIVISION

Invested

$831.97

Value

$814.99

PnL

-$16.98

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

qwerqr1251251

PARIVISION

Invested

$599

Value

$731.71

PnL

+$132.71

Record

26%

59-165 (224)

Hawk.live

PARIVISION

Invested

$526.83

Value

$639.27

PnL

+$112.43

Record

57%

699-527 (1226)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,156.2

Value

$199.52

PnL

+$591.3

Record

73%

27-10 (37)

yishiwuchengCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$962.44

Value

$125.11

PnL

-$820.26

Record

58%

106-78 (184)

omnibus-076daaCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$287.04

Value

$101.08

PnL

-$181.86

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

28 of 53 top traders (53%)25 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 13

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 69% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedPARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 53% · 53

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.