Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold GamerLegion, while the market favors PARIVISION (75%). 11 of 40 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs GamerLegion (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

11 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (28%) · GamerLegion at 26¢ · $98K held · ends Nov 15

PARIVISION75¢GamerLegion25¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 28%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$98.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

32.7¢ → 25.5¢

-22% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidGamerLegion at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

11 of 40 top traders (28%)Underdog side (market favors PARIVISION 75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION75%

GamerLegion26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion11 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares140,944

Combined PnL$-9.7K

PARIVISION29 traders

Total Value$47.4K

Total Shares60,848

Combined PnL+$7.2K

GamerLegion — 28%PARIVISION — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 6

Diverging

ctrPARIVISION 61% · 18

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 76% · 37

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vtcchampion52CTR	GamerLegionavg 40¢	$33.1K	$20.9K	$-11.7K	48% 880-945 (1825)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	PARIVISIONavg 54.7¢	$15.6K	$19.5K	+$3.9K	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 64.7¢	$12.2K	$14.1K	+$2.0K	43% 851-1135 (1986)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 64.7¢	$9.1K	$10.5K	+$1.4K
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 21.4¢	$3.0K	$3.6K	+$599.73
CORGIICTR	GamerLegionavg 14¢	$5.5K	$10.1K	+$4.7K	2% 9-496 (505)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	PARIVISIONavg 54.1¢	$4.9K	$6.7K	+$1.8K	47% 477-547 (1024)
TA TakeMakeSell	PARIVISIONavg 74¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$0	89% 63-8 (71)
YI yishiwucheng	PARIVISIONavg 63.8¢	$7.6K	$4.0K	+$196.41	58% 106-78 (184)
iceblue-	PARIVISIONavg 56.6¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$526.62	42% 35-49 (84)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PARIVISIONavg 63.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$107.01	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	PARIVISIONavg 74¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$12.66	63% 33-19 (52)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	GamerLegionavg 46.3¢	$3.1K	$1.7K	$-1.4K	42% 20-28 (48)
CR Crazyboy77	PARIVISIONavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$310	16% 22-112 (134)
MA MastermoneyCTR	GamerLegionavg 40.8¢	$2.6K	$1.6K	-$971.21	9% 15-145 (160)
Up0nly	PARIVISIONavg 54¢	$496.8	$680.8	+$184	61% 34-22 (56)
0X 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948	PARIVISIONavg 90¢	$747	$618.35	-$128.65	47% 17-19 (36)
GA GaditimaCTR	GamerLegionavg 10¢	$200	$510	+$310	49% 383-400 (783)
rafaleaooCTR	GamerLegionavg 49¢	$980	$510	-$470	6% 42-659 (701)
MA maxoveral00CTR	GamerLegionavg 40.8¢	$800.94	$500.06	-$300.88	62% 16-10 (26)
SU suntori	PARIVISIONavg 60.3¢	$944.6	$440.61	-$30.49	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
TH thatsabing0	PARIVISIONavg 56.2¢	$299.2	$396.65	+$97.45	62% 265-160 (425)
handandfacetatto	PARIVISIONavg 56¢	$294.88	$392.3	+$97.42	99% 109-1 (110)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 32.8¢	$2.9K	$382.54	+$78.78	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 69.8¢	$195.93	$209	+$268.02
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 32.8¢	$223.33	$173.53	-$189.24
PO pol2131	PARIVISIONavg 54¢	$270	$370	+$100	38% 38-62 (100)
DA darkumbreon88	PARIVISIONavg 86¢	$280.31	$241.2	-$39.11	61% 1081-678 (1759)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	PARIVISIONavg 70¢	$210	$222	+$12	73% 27-10 (37)

vtcchampion52CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$33,053.61

Value

$20.9K

PnL

$-11.7K

Record

48%

880-945 (1825)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

PARIVISION

Invested

$15,620.87

Value

$19.5K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$12,223.97

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$9,128.6464.7¢+$1.4K

GamerLegion$3,039.1521.4¢+$599.73

CORGIICTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,464.39

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

9-496 (505)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,899.58

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

47%

477-547 (1024)

TakeMakeSell

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

89%

63-8 (71)

yishiwucheng

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,634.63

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$196.41

Record

58%

106-78 (184)

iceblue-

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,667.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$526.62

Record

42%

35-49 (84)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,867.89

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$107.01

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,874.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$12.66

Record

63%

33-19 (52)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,145.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

42%

20-28 (48)

Crazyboy77

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,429.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$310

Record

16%

22-112 (134)

MastermoneyCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,594

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$971.21

Record

15-145 (160)

Up0nly

PARIVISION

Invested

$496.8

Value

$680.8

PnL

+$184

Record

61%

34-22 (56)

0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948

PARIVISION

Invested

$747

Value

$618.35

PnL

-$128.65

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

GaditimaCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$200

Value

$510

PnL

+$310

Record

49%

383-400 (783)

rafaleaooCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$980

Value

$510

PnL

-$470

Record

42-659 (701)

maxoveral00CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$800.94

Value

$500.06

PnL

-$300.88

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

suntori

PARIVISION

Invested

$944.6

Value

$440.61

PnL

-$30.49

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

thatsabing0

PARIVISION

Invested

$299.2

Value

$396.65

PnL

+$97.45

Record

62%

265-160 (425)

handandfacetatto

PARIVISION

Invested

$294.88

Value

$392.3

PnL

+$97.42

Record

99%

109-1 (110)

NotJumpARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,867.91

Value

$382.54

PnL

+$78.78

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$195.9369.8¢+$268.02

GamerLegion$223.3332.8¢-$189.24

pol2131

PARIVISION

Invested

$270

Value

$370

PnL

+$100

Record

38%

38-62 (100)

darkumbreon88

PARIVISION

Invested

$280.31

Value

$241.2

PnL

-$39.11

Record

61%

1081-678 (1759)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

PARIVISION

Invested

$210

Value

$222

PnL

+$12

Record

73%

27-10 (37)

Research grade

AvoidGamerLegion at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

11 of 40 top traders (28%)Underdog side (market favors PARIVISION 75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 6

Diverging

ctrPARIVISION 61% · 18

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 76% · 37

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.