Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Synapse, while the market favors potn9ki (57%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: potn9ki vs Team Synapse (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Playoffs

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (100%) · Team Synapse at 43¢ · $733 held · ends Nov 12

potn9ki57¢Team Synapse43¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$733.49

Combined PnL

-$63.4

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 42.5¢

-45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki57%

Team Synapse43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse7 traders

Total Value$149.52

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$63.4

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Team Synapse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Team Synapse 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	potn9kiavg 50¢	$525	$493.5	-$31.5	54% 455-382 (837)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 50¢	$262.5	$278.25	+$15.75
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 50¢	$262.5	$215.25	-$47.25
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 79.2¢	$95.87	$90.47	-$5.4	14% 35-209 (244)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 79.2¢	$72.58	$48.6	-$23.98
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 22.8¢	$23.29	$41.87	+$18.58
GA GaditimaCTR	Team Synapseavg 79.7¢	$112.89	$75.1	-$37.79	46% 161-187 (348)
poshposhCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 84.3¢	$43	$27.02	-$15.98	47% 532-590 (1122)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 53.5¢	$16.05	$17.7	+$1.65	41% 257-370 (627)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 61¢	$22.23	$12.32	-$1.98	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 89.5¢	$18.99	$11.25	-$7.74	49% 36-37 (73)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 84¢	$5.04	$3.18	-$1.86	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.95	+$0.3	44% 389-495 (884)

NotJumpARB<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$525

Value

$493.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$262.550¢+$15.75

potn9ki$262.550¢-$47.25

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$95.87

Value

$90.47

PnL

-$5.4

Record

14%

35-209 (244)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$72.5879.2¢-$23.98

potn9ki$23.2922.8¢+$18.58

GaditimaCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$112.89

Value

$75.1

PnL

-$37.79

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

poshposhCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$43

Value

$27.02

PnL

-$15.98

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$16.05

Value

$17.7

PnL

+$1.65

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

suntoriCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$22.23

Value

$12.32

PnL

-$1.98

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$18.99

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$7.74

Record

49%

36-37 (73)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$5.04

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$1.86

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.3

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Team Synapse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Team Synapse 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.