Dota 2: potn9ki vs Team Synapse (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group C

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (50%) · Team Synapse at 93¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 30

potn9ki8¢Team Synapse92¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 50%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$783.63

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 92.5¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki8%

Team Synapse93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse4 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares10,172

Combined PnL-$576.2

potn9ki4 traders

Total Value$155.16

Total Shares1,175

Combined PnL-$207.43

Team Synapse — 50%potn9ki — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	Team Synapseavg 79.6¢	$5.2K	$4.4K	-$818.21	54% 496-424 (920)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Synapseavg 74.9¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$252.96	49% 803-846 (1649)
AM ameisgoat11	Team Synapseavg 67.8¢	$783.46	$772.38	-$11.08	47% 2258-2548 (4806)
AN anyjezzCTR	potn9kiavg 35¢	$249.97	$124.99	-$124.99	49% 532-553 (1085)
SE sentrio<$100	Team Synapseavg 71¢	$18.76	$18.89	+$0.13	50% 24906-24594 (49500)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	potn9kiavg 16.1¢	$15.32	$15.19	-$0.13	59% 30366-21076 (51442)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 27.1¢	$94.96	$12.25	-$82.71	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	potn9kiavg 15¢	$2.34	$2.73	+$0.39	46% 7951-9381 (17332)

pnhct

Team Synapse

Invested

$5,182.48

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$818.21

Record

54%

496-424 (920)

RandomVibecoder

Team Synapse

Invested

$4,002.54

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$252.96

Record

49%

803-846 (1649)

ameisgoat11

Team Synapse

Invested

$783.46

Value

$772.38

PnL

-$11.08

Record

47%

2258-2548 (4806)

anyjezzCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$249.97

Value

$124.99

PnL

-$124.99

Record

49%

532-553 (1085)

sentrio<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$18.76

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

24906-24594 (49500)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$15.32

Value

$15.19

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

30366-21076 (51442)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$94.96

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$82.71

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

38791873984189CTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.39

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.