Dota 2: oveA vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Zero Tenacity (90%) · Zero Tenacity at 100¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 27

oveA<1¢Zero Tenacity>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zero Tenacity

Consensus Traders

Zero Tenacity 90%

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralZero Tenacity at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zero Tenacity

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

oveA0%

Zero Tenacity100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zero Tenacity9 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares19,838

Combined PnL+$1.4K

oveA1 trader

Total Value$65.61

Total Shares733

Combined PnL-$37.67

Zero Tenacity — 90%oveA — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Zero Tenacity. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZero Tenacity 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyWin	Zero Tenacityavg 99.9¢	$10.7K	$10.7K	+$5.72	85% 753-131 (884)
Ludotryasska	Zero Tenacityavg 75.2¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$420.52	62% 44-27 (71)
web3Boss	Zero Tenacityavg 70.2¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$441.06	75% 580-192 (772)
SI Sisyphus-	Zero Tenacityavg 83.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$143.12	56% 708-546 (1254)
RA RandomVibecoder	Zero Tenacityavg 73.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$141.57	48% 784-833 (1617)
poshposh	Zero Tenacityavg 84.1¢	$314.97	$342.15	+$27.18	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
Tolkonevminus2	Zero Tenacityavg 94.3¢	$3.3K	$151.29	+$189.16	66% 50-26 (76)
maytopmay	Zero Tenacityavg 89¢	$101.42	$103.78	+$2.81	60% 268-175 (443)
1R 1rerrrCTR	oveAavg 16.8¢	$237.32	$65.61	-$37.67	51% 1288-1260 (2548)
JO JocJo<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 92¢	$7.44	$7.36	-$0.08	51% 923-888 (1811)

LuckyWin

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$10,718.24

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$5.72

Record

85%

753-131 (884)

Ludotryasska

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$420.52

Record

62%

44-27 (71)

web3Boss

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,486.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$441.06

Record

75%

580-192 (772)

Sisyphus-

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,656.79

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$143.12

Record

56%

708-546 (1254)

RandomVibecoder

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,644.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$141.57

Record

48%

784-833 (1617)

poshposh

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$314.97

Value

$342.15

PnL

+$27.18

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

Tolkonevminus2

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3,327.1

Value

$151.29

PnL

+$189.16

Record

66%

50-26 (76)

maytopmay

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$101.42

Value

$103.78

PnL

+$2.81

Record

60%

268-175 (443)

1rerrrCTR

oveA

Invested

$237.32

Value

$65.61

PnL

-$37.67

Record

51%

1288-1260 (2548)

JocJo<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$7.44

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

923-888 (1811)

Research grade

NeutralZero Tenacity at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Zero Tenacity

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Zero Tenacity. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZero Tenacity 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zero Tenacity wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.