Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold oveA, while the market favors Mena Warriors (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Dota 2: oveA vs Mena Warriors - Game 2 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold oveA (60%) · oveA at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
oveA
5
oveA 60%
$2.0K
$322.15
41¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidoveA at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Mena Warriors 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SkritopoolniyCTR | oveAavg 44¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$189.37 | 48% 596-634 (1230) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Mena Warriorsavg 46.5¢ | $136.85 | $148.63 | +$11.78 | 59% 30074-20800 (50874) |
 Medo3DCTR | oveAavg 9.5¢ | $27.9 | $145.31 | +$117.42 | 39% 155-243 (398) |
 1am1b<$100 | Mena Warriorsavg 65.9¢ | $36.25 | $27.78 | -$8.48 | 56% 179-138 (317) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | oveAavg 11¢ | $3.46 | $15.52 | +$12.06 | 60% 9356-6329 (15685) |
SkritopoolniyCTRInvested
$1,515
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$189.37
Record
48%
596-634 (1230)
Invested
$136.85
Value
$148.63
PnL
+$11.78
Record
59%
30074-20800 (50874)
Medo3DCTRInvested
$27.9
Value
$145.31
PnL
+$117.42
Record
39%
155-243 (398)
1am1b<$100Invested
$36.25
Value
$27.78
PnL
-$8.48
Record
56%
179-138 (317)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.46
Value
$15.52
PnL
+$12.06
Record
60%
9356-6329 (15685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.