Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

17 of 46 top Polymarket traders hold Yellow Submarine (37%) · Yellow Submarine at 100¢ · $163K held · ends Nov 2

OG<1¢Yellow Submarine>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yellow Submarine

Consensus Traders

Yellow Submarine 37%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$163.0K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 100¢

+112% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

17 of 46 top traders (37%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

OG0%

Yellow Submarine100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine17 traders

Total Value$71.9K

Total Shares115,187

Combined PnL+$11.3K

OG29 traders

Total Value$45.4K

Total Shares90,124

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Yellow Submarine — 37%OG — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhctARB<$100	OGavg 52.9¢	$42.4K	$41.8K	-$658.67	53% 541-474 (1015)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 48.2¢	$19.9K	$26.2K	+$6.3K
└ OG leg	OGavg 52.9¢	$22.5K	$15.5K	$-7.0K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Yellow Submarineavg 44.1¢	$16.5K	$23.4K	+$6.9K	58% 912-655 (1567)
RA RandomVibecoder	Yellow Submarineavg 51¢	$14.9K	$18.3K	+$3.4K	49% 813-861 (1674)
SI Sisyphus-	Yellow Submarineavg 40.8¢	$10.8K	$11.2K	+$448.78	57% 729-556 (1285)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	OGavg 46.4¢	$16.9K	$9.0K	$-4.3K	67% 88-43 (131)
TokennCTR	OGavg 56.7¢	$8.6K	$8.6K	-$7.93	48% 660-721 (1381)
DE depresssin	Yellow Submarineavg 99.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$2.57	85% 1275-226 (1501)
CyberScore.live	Yellow Submarineavg 44.9¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$61.19	46% 411-482 (893)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	OGavg 56.7¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$179.35	50% 547-543 (1090)
1R 1rerrrCTR	OGavg 56.6¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$187.41	51% 1308-1281 (2589)
maytopmay	Yellow Submarineavg 43.8¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$94.79	61% 288-185 (473)
PROBABILITYTRADERCTR	OGavg 61.1¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$193.23	42% 1084-1472 (2556)
UN Uniform123CTR	OGavg 64¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$43.79	49% 250-259 (509)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	OGavg 52.4¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$15.06	57% 18874-13974 (32848)
└ OG leg	OGavg 52.4¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$263.93
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 50.8¢	$1.0K	$778.86	-$248.88
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	OGavg 58.1¢	$3.9K	$2.5K	-$126.99	51% 363-353 (716)
PA panpidaras1CTR	OGavg 52¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$158.55	49% 220-225 (445)
NO NotJump	Yellow Submarineavg 46.4¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$248.84	44% 9904-12850 (22754)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR	OGavg 54.6¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$330.04	61% 308-193 (501)
Tolkonevminus3CTR	OGavg 64.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$25.47	57% 75-56 (131)
CC ccllarCTR	OGavg 51.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$141.13	47% 482-542 (1024)
AM AmericaFirst1	Yellow Submarineavg 44.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$70.76	62% 2234-1363 (3597)
XU xuxuntaoCTR	OGavg 49.4¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$322.92	64% 96-55 (151)
CO CoffeemaniaBetsARB<$100	OGavg 58.3¢	$950	$876.73	-$73.27	50% 37-37 (74)
└ OG leg	OGavg 58.3¢	$700	$660.38	-$39.62
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 52¢	$250	$216.35	-$33.65
TO topdogbigboiCTR	OGavg 29.2¢	$777.58	$837.13	+$59.55	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
BE berlinskies	Yellow Submarineavg 45.7¢	$503.24	$666.08	+$596.75	58% 6038-4391 (10429)

pnhctARB<$100

Invested

$42,420.57

Value

$41.8K

PnL

-$658.67

Record

53%

541-474 (1015)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$19,896.5148.2¢+$6.3K

OG$22,524.0552.9¢$-7.0K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$16,478.57

Value

$23.4K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

58%

912-655 (1567)

RandomVibecoder

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$14,855.8

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

49%

813-861 (1674)

Sisyphus-

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$10,795.34

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$448.78

Record

57%

729-556 (1285)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Invested

$16,851.54

Value

$9.0K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

67%

88-43 (131)

TokennCTR

Invested

$8,563.83

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$7.93

Record

48%

660-721 (1381)

depresssin

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,141.89

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.57

Record

85%

1275-226 (1501)

CyberScore.live

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4,994.29

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$61.19

Record

46%

411-482 (893)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Invested

$4,637.49

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$179.35

Record

50%

547-543 (1090)

1rerrrCTR

Invested

$4,189.51

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$187.41

Record

51%

1308-1281 (2589)

maytopmay

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,297.41

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$94.79

Record

61%

288-185 (473)

PROBABILITYTRADERCTR

Invested

$3,257.64

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$193.23

Record

42%

1084-1472 (2556)

Uniform123CTR

Invested

$2,802.56

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$43.79

Record

49%

250-259 (509)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Invested

$2,555.16

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$15.06

Record

57%

18874-13974 (32848)

Both legs:

OG$1,527.4352.4¢+$263.93

Yellow Submarine$1,027.7350.8¢-$248.88

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Invested

$3,865.26

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$126.99

Record

51%

363-353 (716)

panpidaras1CTR

Invested

$2,084.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$158.55

Record

49%

220-225 (445)

NotJump

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,516.15

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$248.84

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR

Invested

$1,780

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$330.04

Record

61%

308-193 (501)

Tolkonevminus3CTR

Invested

$1,471.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$25.47

Record

57%

75-56 (131)

ccllarCTR

Invested

$1,547.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$141.13

Record

47%

482-542 (1024)

AmericaFirst1

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,393.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$70.76

Record

62%

2234-1363 (3597)

xuxuntaoCTR

Invested

$1,344.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$322.92

Record

64%

96-55 (151)

CoffeemaniaBetsARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$876.73

PnL

-$73.27

Record

50%

37-37 (74)

Both legs:

OG$70058.3¢-$39.62

Yellow Submarine$25052¢-$33.65

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$777.58

Value

$837.13

PnL

+$59.55

Record

47%

10059-11176 (21235)

berlinskies

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$503.24

Value

$666.08

PnL

+$596.75

Record

58%

6038-4391 (10429)

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

17 of 46 top traders (37%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yellow Submarine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.