Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold GamerLegion, while the market favors OG (53%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (25%) · GamerLegion at 47¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
GamerLegion
4
GamerLegion 25%
$13.9K
$131.73
Research grade
NeutralGamerLegion at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors OG 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CORGIICTR | GamerLegionavg 46¢ | $13.0K | $13.3K | +$142.51 | 41% 389-562 (951) |
SP sportteryqq | OGavg 54¢ | $550 | $539.81 | -$10.19 | 40% 414-627 (1041) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | OGavg 54¢ | $32.4 | $31.8 | -$0.6 | 50% 3763-3735 (7498) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | OGavg 53¢ | $6.67 | $6.67 | +$0 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
CORGIICTRInvested
$13,024.41
Value
$13.3K
PnL
+$142.51
Record
41%
389-562 (951)
Invested
$550
Value
$539.81
PnL
-$10.19
Record
40%
414-627 (1041)
Invested
$32.4
Value
$31.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
3763-3735 (7498)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.67
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.