Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (64%) · Natus Vincere at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2

Natus Vincere98¢Nemiga Gaming2¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 64%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$316.95

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 97.8¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Natus Vincere98%

Nemiga Gaming2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,770

Combined PnL+$316.96

Nemiga Gaming4 traders

Total Value$51.78

Total Shares819

Combined PnL-$0.01

Natus Vincere — 64%Nemiga Gaming — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nemiga Gaming) and the top 1000 (6 on Natus Vincere) disagree here.

sharpNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNatus Vincere 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Natus Vincere 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Up0nly	Natus Vincereavg 91¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$199.88	68% 995-474 (1469)
SP spartachio	Natus Vincereavg 92¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$85.48	48% 704-764 (1468)
38 38791873984189	Natus Vincereavg 92.5¢	$518.38	$351.07	+$20.69	47% 13045-14637 (27682)
LO lonmi2511	Natus Vincereavg 96.3¢	$192.16	$196.94	+$4.79	62% 1234-751 (1985)
GA Gaditima	Natus Vincereavg 95¢	$97.62	$101.7	+$4.09	47% 6239-6896 (13135)
CA calculate10<$100	Natus Vincereavg 95.8¢	$88.73	$91.07	+$2.33	53% 1243-1085 (2328)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 8.7¢	$39.19	$40.68	-$0.77	46% 919-1089 (2008)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Natus Vincereavg 93¢	$13.95	$13.65	-$0.3	53% 7649-6917 (14566)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 3.1¢	$9.01	$9.94	+$0.93	47% 10062-11183 (21245)
poshposhCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 1.7¢	$1.25	$1.03	-$0.22	58% 11446-8297 (19743)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 6¢	$0.09	$0.13	+$0.04	42% 1798-2479 (4277)

Up0nly

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,441.53

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$199.88

Record

68%

995-474 (1469)

spartachio

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,219.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$85.48

Record

48%

704-764 (1468)

38791873984189

Natus Vincere

Invested

$518.38

Value

$351.07

PnL

+$20.69

Record

47%

13045-14637 (27682)

lonmi2511

Natus Vincere

Invested

$192.16

Value

$196.94

PnL

+$4.79

Record

62%

1234-751 (1985)

Gaditima

Natus Vincere

Invested

$97.62

Value

$101.7

PnL

+$4.09

Record

47%

6239-6896 (13135)

calculate10<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$88.73

Value

$91.07

PnL

+$2.33

Record

53%

1243-1085 (2328)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$39.19

Value

$40.68

PnL

-$0.77

Record

46%

919-1089 (2008)

ameisgoat11<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.65

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

7649-6917 (14566)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$9.01

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$0.93

Record

47%

10062-11183 (21245)

poshposhCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.22

Record

58%

11446-8297 (19743)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

1798-2479 (4277)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nemiga Gaming) and the top 1000 (6 on Natus Vincere) disagree here.

sharpNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNatus Vincere 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Natus Vincere 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.