Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Synapse - Game 2 Winner

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Team Lynx (67%) · Team Lynx at 78¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 11

Team Lynx78¢Team Synapse22¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Lynx

Consensus Traders

Team Lynx 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 78¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Lynx78%

Team Synapse22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Lynx6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares12,535

Combined PnL+$958.94

Team Synapse3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares11,354

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Team Lynx — 67%Team Synapse — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Team Lynx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Team Lynx 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Lynxavg 61.9¢	$3.1K	$3.9K	+$735.23	46% 438-504 (942)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Lynxavg 56.1¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$660.88	57% 522-399 (921)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Synapseavg 44.4¢	$4.5K	$2.4K	$-2.1K	48% 500-546 (1046)
Tolkonevminus2	Team Lynxavg 89.4¢	$2.8K	$2.1K	-$595.35	39% 38-60 (98)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Team Lynxavg 61.3¢	$817.98	$878.23	+$60.26	56% 3858-3022 (6880)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Team Lynxavg 60.6¢	$576.33	$592.5	+$16.18	11% 26-203 (229)
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 60.6¢	$361.58	$411.71	+$50.13
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 36.8¢	$214.75	$180.79	-$33.95
PO PourpelNourpel	Team Lynxavg 57¢	$305.38	$369.67	+$64.29	53% 40-36 (76)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Team Synapseavg 41.3¢	$1.5K	$169.23	-$339.4	27% 29-78 (107)
LR lryyy	Team Lynxavg 53.1¢	$93.96	$127.61	+$33.64	45% 234-284 (518)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Team Synapseavg 4¢	$15.68	$121.54	+$105.86	19% 13-56 (69)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Lynx

Invested

$3,125.6

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$735.23

Record

46%

438-504 (942)

Sisyphus-

Team Lynx

Invested

$1,812.89

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$660.88

Record

57%

522-399 (921)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$4,523.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

48%

500-546 (1046)

Tolkonevminus2

Team Lynx

Invested

$2,844.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$595.35

Record

39%

38-60 (98)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Team Lynx

Invested

$817.98

Value

$878.23

PnL

+$60.26

Record

56%

3858-3022 (6880)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$576.33

Value

$592.5

PnL

+$16.18

Record

11%

26-203 (229)

Both legs:

Team Lynx$361.5860.6¢+$50.13

Team Synapse$214.7536.8¢-$33.95

PourpelNourpel

Team Lynx

Invested

$305.38

Value

$369.67

PnL

+$64.29

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,517.06

Value

$169.23

PnL

-$339.4

Record

27%

29-78 (107)

lryyy

Team Lynx

Invested

$93.96

Value

$127.61

PnL

+$33.64

Record

45%

234-284 (518)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$15.68

Value

$121.54

PnL

+$105.86

Record

19%

13-56 (69)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Team Lynx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Team Lynx 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Lynx wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.