Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (75%) · Team Synapse at 64¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 11

Team Lynx36¢Team Synapse64¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.4K

Combined PnL

$837.44

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 64¢

+19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Lynx36%

Team Synapse64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Lynx2 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares17,022

Combined PnL-$434.1

Team Synapse6 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares15,734

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Team Lynx — 25%Team Synapse — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Lynxavg 37.8¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	-$354.16	46% 435-501 (936)
Medo3D	Team Synapseavg 50.5¢	$6.6K	$4.9K	+$615.48	7% 18-227 (245)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Synapseavg 48.9¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$355.12	48% 496-543 (1039)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Synapseavg 64¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$125.5	57% 520-396 (916)
DO DotaBotReborn	Team Synapseavg 55.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$177.33	62% 26-16 (42)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 58¢	$602.1	$600.62	-$1.48	56% 3851-3020 (6871)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 58¢	$326.7	$363.34	+$36.64
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 41.2¢	$275.4	$237.28	-$38.12
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 62.9¢	$518.37	$509.16	-$5.81	11% 26-202 (228)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 62.9¢	$330.47	$339.03	+$8.56
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 38.4¢	$184.06	$170.13	-$14.37
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Team Lynxavg 41.2¢	$576.94	$497	-$79.94	26% 27-77 (104)
PO PourpelNourpel	Team Synapseavg 64¢	$307.91	$307.91	-$0	54% 38-33 (71)
LR lryyy<$100	Team Synapseavg 63.4¢	$20.3	$18.4	-$1.9	45% 233-283 (516)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$5,900

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$354.16

Record

46%

435-501 (936)

Medo3D

Team Synapse

Invested

$6,596.78

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$615.48

Record

18-227 (245)

RandomVibecoder

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,376.97

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$355.12

Record

48%

496-543 (1039)

Sisyphus-

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,789.44

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$125.5

Record

57%

520-396 (916)

DotaBotReborn

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,219.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$177.33

Record

62%

26-16 (42)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$602.1

Value

$600.62

PnL

-$1.48

Record

56%

3851-3020 (6871)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$326.758¢+$36.64

Team Lynx$275.441.2¢-$38.12

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$518.37

Value

$509.16

PnL

-$5.81

Record

11%

26-202 (228)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$330.4762.9¢+$8.56

Team Lynx$184.0638.4¢-$14.37

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$576.94

Value

$497

PnL

-$79.94

Record

26%

27-77 (104)

PourpelNourpel

Team Synapse

Invested

$307.91

Value

$307.91

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

38-33 (71)

lryyy<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$20.3

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$1.9

Record

45%

233-283 (516)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.