Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Team Lynx, while the market favors Team Synapse (74%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Synapse (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Team Lynx (100%) · Team Lynx at 26¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Team Lynx
3
Team Lynx 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$444.23
49.3¢ → 26¢
-47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTeam Lynx at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Team Synapse 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Team Lynx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarmCTR | Team Lynxavg 51.9¢ | $793.9 | $443.42 | -$350.48 | 64% 16-9 (25) |
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100 | Team Synapseavg 70¢ | $348 | $343.54 | -$4.46 | 32% 295-621 (916) |
| └ Team Synapse leg | Team Synapseavg 70¢ | $212 | $214.99 | +$2.99 | |
| └ Team Lynx leg | Team Lynxavg 30.7¢ | $136 | $128.55 | -$7.45 | |
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100 | Team Synapseavg 60.2¢ | $189.69 | $188.19 | -$1.5 | 11% 26-203 (229) |
| └ Team Synapse leg | Team Synapseavg 60.2¢ | $111.58 | $131.7 | +$20.12 | |
| └ Team Lynx leg | Team Lynxavg 40.1¢ | $78.1 | $56.48 | -$21.62 | |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Team Lynxavg 44.3¢ | $196.15 | $128.51 | -$67.65 | 50% 3294-3249 (6543) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Team Lynxavg 41¢ | $89.1 | $62.99 | -$26.11 | 56% 3856-3022 (6878) |
Invested
$793.9
Value
$443.42
PnL
-$350.48
Record
64%
16-9 (25)
Invested
$348
Value
$343.54
PnL
-$4.46
Record
32%
295-621 (916)
Both legs:
Invested
$189.69
Value
$188.19
PnL
-$1.5
Record
11%
26-203 (229)
Both legs:
Invested
$196.15
Value
$128.51
PnL
-$67.65
Record
50%
3294-3249 (6543)
Invested
$89.1
Value
$62.99
PnL
-$26.11
Record
56%
3856-3022 (6878)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.