Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold OG, while the market favors Team Liquid (59%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold OG (67%) · OG at 42¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
OG
3
OG 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$560.78
54.6¢ → 41.5¢
-24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOG at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Team Liquid 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luckycat888888CTR | OGavg 54¢ | $2.7K | $2.2K | -$521.82 | 53% 49-43 (92) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | OGavg 61¢ | $304.67 | $269.7 | -$34.96 | 65% 1700-920 (2620) |
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100 | Team Liquidavg 44.3¢ | $206.29 | $233.58 | +$27.29 | 51% 1799-1729 (3528) |
| └ Team Liquid leg | Team Liquidavg 44.3¢ | $134.52 | $171.59 | +$37.07 | |
| └ OG leg | OGavg 50.4¢ | $71.77 | $62 | -$9.78 | |
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100 | OGavg 47.5¢ | $77.53 | $82.4 | +$4.87 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
| └ OG leg | OGavg 47.5¢ | $49.85 | $45.67 | -$4.18 | |
| └ Team Liquid leg | Team Liquidavg 42.6¢ | $27.68 | $36.73 | +$9.05 | |
 iceblue-<$100 | Team Liquidavg 38¢ | $18.99 | $14.99 | -$4 | 43% 807-1075 (1882) |
Invested
$2,683.65
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$521.82
Record
53%
49-43 (92)
Invested
$304.67
Value
$269.7
PnL
-$34.96
Record
65%
1700-920 (2620)
Invested
$206.29
Value
$233.58
PnL
+$27.29
Record
51%
1799-1729 (3528)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.53
Value
$82.4
PnL
+$4.87
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
Both legs:
iceblue-<$100Invested
$18.99
Value
$14.99
PnL
-$4
Record
43%
807-1075 (1882)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.