Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (47%) · Team Liquid at 72¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 30

Team Liquid72¢OG28¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$73.72

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 71.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid72%

OG28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid7 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares13,466

Combined PnL+$29.54

OG8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,213

Combined PnL+$44.19

Team Liquid — 47%OG — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jackcartwright	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$25	49% 219-231 (450)
VI vibing123	Team Liquidavg 63¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$17.66	52% 1561-1444 (3005)
BE BettongCTR	OGavg 34¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$22.71	55% 335-269 (604)
0xheavy888	Team Liquidavg 69¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$9.7	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 73.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$60.58	54% 494-424 (918)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 73.4¢	$824.58	$848.56	+$23.98
└ OG leg	OGavg 29.2¢	$523.74	$439.18	-$84.56
DamwonChampions2026	Team Liquidavg 70¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$22.8	53% 2056-1820 (3876)
BI BillBenter2026	Team Liquidavg 66.7¢	$499.68	$558.01	+$58.33	58% 18578-13636 (32214)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Team Liquidavg 67¢	$469	$465.5	-$3.5	51% 1396-1343 (2739)
LU luckycat888888CTR	OGavg 33¢	$276.09	$280.27	+$4.18	53% 49-43 (92)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$168.77	$181.87	+$13.1	51% 1797-1729 (3526)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$92.16	$105.43	+$13.27
└ OG leg	OGavg 24.6¢	$76.61	$76.44	-$0.17
38 38791873984189CTR	OGavg 34.1¢	$150.51	$160.9	+$10.39	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	OGavg 35¢	$90.49	$97.09	+$6.6	49% 18979-19390 (38369)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	OGavg 33¢	$29.34	$33.34	+$4	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	OGavg 27.3¢	$36.93	$33.17	-$3.77	47% 2257-2545 (4802)
PU purplegatto<$100	Team Liquidavg 63¢	$15.75	$15.63	-$0.13	50% 5838-5942 (11780)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	OGavg 25¢	$4.5	$4.59	+$0.09	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
HRTradingCTR<$100	OGavg 31¢	$1.24	$1.22	-$0.02	52% 3994-3637 (7631)

jackcartwright

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,299.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$25

Record

49%

219-231 (450)

vibing123

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,224.87

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$17.66

Record

52%

1561-1444 (3005)

BettongCTR

Invested

$1,544.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$22.71

Record

55%

335-269 (604)

0xheavy888

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,338.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$9.7

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

pnhctARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,348.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$60.58

Record

54%

494-424 (918)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$824.5873.4¢+$23.98

OG$523.7429.2¢-$84.56

DamwonChampions2026

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,064.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$22.8

Record

53%

2056-1820 (3876)

BillBenter2026

Team Liquid

Invested

$499.68

Value

$558.01

PnL

+$58.33

Record

58%

18578-13636 (32214)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Team Liquid

Invested

$469

Value

$465.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

51%

1396-1343 (2739)

luckycat888888CTR

Invested

$276.09

Value

$280.27

PnL

+$4.18

Record

53%

49-43 (92)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$168.77

Value

$181.87

PnL

+$13.1

Record

51%

1797-1729 (3526)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$92.1666¢+$13.27

OG$76.6124.6¢-$0.17

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$150.51

Value

$160.9

PnL

+$10.39

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$90.49

Value

$97.09

PnL

+$6.6

Record

49%

18979-19390 (38369)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$33.34

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$36.93

Value

$33.17

PnL

-$3.77

Record

47%

2257-2545 (4802)

purplegatto<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$15.75

Value

$15.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

5838-5942 (11780)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$0.09

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.