Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold LGD Gaming (45%) · LGD Gaming at 61¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 13

Team Liquid39¢LGD Gaming61¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LGD Gaming

Consensus Traders

LGD Gaming 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 61¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid39%

LGD Gaming61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LGD Gaming5 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares15,893

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Team Liquid6 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares18,521

Combined PnL+$64.95

LGD Gaming — 45%Team Liquid — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on LGD Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Team Liquid 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Neimuking	LGD Gamingavg 54.1¢	$8.5K	$6.0K	$-2.5K	35% 9-17 (26)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Liquidavg 40.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$29.3	47% 462-528 (990)
iceblue-CTR	Team Liquidavg 37.9¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$873.88	50% 28-28 (56)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	Team Liquidavg 48.3¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	-$967.4	57% 73-54 (127)
forsenxdCTR	Team Liquidavg 37¢	$641.08	$1.1K	+$433.16	49% 371-393 (764)
vtcchampion52CTR	Team Liquidavg 46.7¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$238.77	48% 862-923 (1785)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 54¢	$757.65	$722.39	-$35.26	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 54¢	$528.69	$372.04	-$156.65
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 40.5¢	$228.97	$350.36	+$121.39
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 48.9¢	$351.79	$402.09	+$50.31	40% 589-893 (1482)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 48.9¢	$239.39	$315.93	+$76.54
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 46.3¢	$112.4	$86.16	-$26.24
PU purplegatto<$100	LGD Gamingavg 61¢	$61	$40	-$21	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	Team Liquidavg 46¢	$38.09	$31.47	-$6.62	11% 35-282 (317)
NO NotJump<$100	LGD Gamingavg 60¢	$27.68	$17.53	-$10.15	53% 634-568 (1202)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	LGD Gamingavg 50¢	$1.0K	$15.48	-$7.52	75% 112-37 (149)
BI biying99999<$100	LGD Gamingavg 60¢	$10.8	$7.2	-$3.6	33% 88-181 (269)

Neimuking

LGD Gaming

Invested

$8,487.94

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

35%

9-17 (26)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,328.82

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$29.3

Record

47%

462-528 (990)

iceblue-CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,371.28

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$873.88

Record

50%

28-28 (56)

yishiwuchengCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,385.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$967.4

Record

57%

73-54 (127)

forsenxdCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$641.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$433.16

Record

49%

371-393 (764)

vtcchampion52CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,283.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$238.77

Record

48%

862-923 (1785)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$757.65

Value

$722.39

PnL

-$35.26

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$528.6954¢-$156.65

Team Liquid$228.9740.5¢+$121.39

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$351.79

Value

$402.09

PnL

+$50.31

Record

40%

589-893 (1482)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$239.3948.9¢+$76.54

Team Liquid$112.446.3¢-$26.24

purplegatto<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$61

Value

$40

PnL

-$21

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$38.09

Value

$31.47

PnL

-$6.62

Record

11%

35-282 (317)

NotJump<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$27.68

Value

$17.53

PnL

-$10.15

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,000

Value

$15.48

PnL

-$7.52

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

biying99999<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$10.8

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$3.6

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on LGD Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Team Liquid 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LGD Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.