Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

23 of 43 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (53%) · Team Liquid at 91¢ · $119K held · ends Nov 14

Team Liquid91¢LEGION9¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$119.1K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 90.5¢

+18% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

23 of 43 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid91%

LEGION10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid23 traders

Total Value$99.4K

Total Shares119,584

Combined PnL+$7.4K

LEGION20 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares128,522

Combined PnL$-13.2K

Team Liquid — 53%LEGION — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Team Liquidavg 76.1¢	$30.6K	$35.3K	+$4.6K	57% 544-407 (951)
R2 r2d2v2	Team Liquidavg 74¢	$11.8K	$11.6K	-$240	14% 30-186 (216)
GX gxxyy	Team Liquidavg 81.3¢	$9.8K	$11.0K	+$1.1K	69% 507-227 (734)
JE jelly2026	Team Liquidavg 78.6¢	$8.0K	$7.1K	+$665.54	54% 89-75 (164)
relativesignificance	Team Liquidavg 74.4¢	$12.8K	$6.3K	+$15.65	55% 160-133 (293)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	Team Liquidavg 72.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$61.02	— 8-10 (18)
maytopmay	Team Liquidavg 80.9¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$291.29	21% 55-206 (261)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	LEGIONavg 21.9¢	$3.3K	$3.6K	+$243.55	15% 39-214 (253)
Neimuking	Team Liquidavg 71¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$25	34% 12-23 (35)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Liquidavg 80.6¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$230.46	78% 21-6 (27)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LEGIONavg 24.3¢	$5.8K	$3.0K	$-2.8K	47% 472-537 (1009)
EX Excentrico	Team Liquidavg 76.2¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	+$430.22	8% 11-132 (143)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	LEGIONavg 24.9¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$343.44	5% 15-300 (315)
Hawk.live	Team Liquidavg 89¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$45	57% 690-518 (1208)
NO nomoredream	Team Liquidavg 83.7¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$158.08	42% 64-89 (153)
GE GeorgeReCTR	LEGIONavg 24.7¢	$4.8K	$1.8K	$-2.9K	53% 717-647 (1364)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR	LEGIONavg 24¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$210.55	— 6-8 (14)
web3Boss	Team Liquidavg 84¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$21.29	66% 21-11 (32)
SC Scrip-scripCTR	LEGIONavg 21¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$150	19% 4-17 (21)
SkritopoolniyCTR	LEGIONavg 25¢	$2.7K	$1.0K	$-1.7K	10% 41-388 (429)
SI SineNooneEICTR	LEGIONavg 28¢	$2.8K	$950	$-1.8K	55% 637-530 (1167)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	LEGIONavg 30.3¢	$2.9K	$902.5	$-2.0K	— 7-3 (10)
XJ xjansfsa	Team Liquidavg 90¢	$655.47	$659.11	+$3.64	47% 31-35 (66)
KA KaguyaNg	Team Liquidavg 75¢	$621.7	$625.84	+$4.14	— 4-1 (5)
SU suntori	Team Liquidavg 86.4¢	$617.13	$614.35	-$2.78	46% 2679-3158 (5837)

Sisyphus-

Team Liquid

Invested

$30,641.83

Value

$35.3K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

57%

544-407 (951)

r2d2v2

Team Liquid

Invested

$11,839.98

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$240

Record

14%

30-186 (216)

gxxyy

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,844.67

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

69%

507-227 (734)

jelly2026

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,035.97

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$665.54

Record

54%

89-75 (164)

relativesignificance

Team Liquid

Invested

$12,776.54

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$15.65

Record

55%

160-133 (293)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$5,130.41

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$61.02

Record

—

8-10 (18)

maytopmay

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,594.5

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$291.29

Record

21%

55-206 (261)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

LEGION

Invested

$3,334.34

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$243.55

Record

15%

39-214 (253)

Neimuking

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,550

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$25

Record

34%

12-23 (35)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,900.06

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$230.46

Record

78%

21-6 (27)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LEGION

Invested

$5,801.41

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

47%

472-537 (1009)

Excentrico

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,001

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$430.22

Record

11-132 (143)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,406.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$343.44

Record

15-300 (315)

Hawk.live

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,670

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$45

Record

57%

690-518 (1208)

nomoredream

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,930.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$158.08

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

GeorgeReCTR

LEGION

Invested

$4,755.15

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

53%

717-647 (1364)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,122.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$210.55

Record

—

6-8 (14)

web3Boss

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,191.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$21.29

Record

66%

21-11 (32)

Scrip-scripCTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,049.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

19%

4-17 (21)

SkritopoolniyCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,673.84

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

10%

41-388 (429)

SineNooneEICTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,799.99

Value

$950

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

55%

637-530 (1167)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,873.87

Value

$902.5

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

—

7-3 (10)

xjansfsa

Team Liquid

Invested

$655.47

Value

$659.11

PnL

+$3.64

Record

47%

31-35 (66)

KaguyaNg

Team Liquid

Invested

$621.7

Value

$625.84

PnL

+$4.14

Record

—

4-1 (5)

suntori

Team Liquid

Invested

$617.13

Value

$614.35

PnL

-$2.78

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

23 of 43 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.