Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner

27 of 46 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (59%) · Team Liquid at 70¢ · $211K held · ends Oct 29

Team Liquid70¢Astra Invicta30¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 59%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$211.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.9K

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 69.5¢

+14% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

27 of 46 top traders (59%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid70%

Astra Invicta31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Astra Invicta19 traders

Total Value$64.7K

Total Shares173,383

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Team Liquid27 traders

Total Value$118.2K

Total Shares195,675

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Astra Invicta — 41%Team Liquid — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CyberScore.liveCTR	Astra Invictaavg 41.7¢	$25.0K	$21.9K	$-3.1K	46% 401-469 (870)
Sunshine.Smile	Team Liquidavg 59.7¢	$19.5K	$19.1K	-$385.69	58% 1856-1333 (3189)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Liquidavg 59.8¢	$15.0K	$15.4K	+$419.59	58% 888-649 (1537)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Liquidavg 62.7¢	$16.0K	$14.9K	$-1.0K	57% 718-548 (1266)
dodsterbotARB<$100	Astra Invictaavg 39.5¢	$12.1K	$11.4K	-$676.95	46% 626-722 (1348)
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 39.5¢	$9.6K	$8.8K	-$728.98
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 62.2¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$52.02
YA yadens	Team Liquidavg 62.8¢	$11.0K	$11.2K	+$131.1	70% 150-64 (214)
TokennCTR	Astra Invictaavg 38.5¢	$9.6K	$10.2K	+$552	48% 650-704 (1354)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 62.3¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$86.65	54% 474-405 (879)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 62.3¢	$6.0K	$6.7K	+$688.5
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 36.6¢	$3.6K	$3.0K	-$601.85
Skritopoolniy	Team Liquidavg 55¢	$8.5K	$8.4K	-$155.12	48% 600-640 (1240)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	Astra Invictaavg 40.3¢	$10.3K	$7.8K	$-2.5K	45% 66-81 (147)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Astra Invictaavg 37.6¢	$7.4K	$7.2K	-$223.52	53% 38-34 (72)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Liquidavg 58¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$55.33	54% 1072-930 (2002)
OR origatoARB<$100	Astra Invictaavg 34¢	$4.8K	$5.3K	+$449.25	41% 21-30 (51)
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 34¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$243
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 56¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$206.25
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Liquidavg 65.4¢	$8.1K	$5.2K	+$203.45	68% 69-32 (101)
errormargin3	Team Liquidavg 57.4¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$300.09	54% 237-204 (441)
0X 0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492	Team Liquidavg 69¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$28.99	69% 75-33 (108)
maytopmay	Team Liquidavg 67.2¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$519.08	61% 278-177 (455)
PA para-VisionCTR	Astra Invictaavg 37¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$198.34	56% 204-161 (365)
MO momijidanCTR	Astra Invictaavg 41.1¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	-$233.31	51% 194-183 (377)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR	Astra Invictaavg 37.8¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$57.74	43% 333-443 (776)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR	Astra Invictaavg 38.5¢	$5.4K	$3.0K	-$311.37	56% 157-121 (278)
eblomixer	Team Liquidavg 57¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$275.6	57% 491-371 (862)
BA babyboy9	Team Liquidavg 61.1¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$349.56	54% 342-289 (631)
GX gxxyy	Team Liquidavg 67.8¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$170.63	69% 486-217 (703)
cat3xcat3x	Team Liquidavg 58.8¢	$7.4K	$2.5K	+$521.91	56% 324-256 (580)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$24,993.31

Value

$21.9K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

46%

401-469 (870)

Sunshine.Smile

Team Liquid

Invested

$19,502.42

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$385.69

Record

58%

1856-1333 (3189)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Liquid

Invested

$15,000

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$419.59

Record

58%

888-649 (1537)

Sisyphus-

Team Liquid

Invested

$15,961.13

Value

$14.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

57%

718-548 (1266)

dodsterbotARB<$100

Astra Invicta

Invested

$12,059.68

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$676.95

Record

46%

626-722 (1348)

Both legs:

Astra Invicta$9,571.9539.5¢-$728.98

Team Liquid$2,48462.2¢+$52.02

yadens

Team Liquid

Invested

$11,048.85

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$131.1

Record

70%

150-64 (214)

TokennCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$9,620

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$552

Record

48%

650-704 (1354)

pnhctARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,563.46

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$86.65

Record

54%

474-405 (879)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$5,963.4562.3¢+$688.5

Astra Invicta$3,600.0136.6¢-$601.85

Skritopoolniy

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,531.61

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$155.12

Record

48%

600-640 (1240)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$10,333.48

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

45%

66-81 (147)

luckycat888888CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$7,383.07

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$223.52

Record

53%

38-34 (72)

GeorgeRe

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,444.02

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$55.33

Record

54%

1072-930 (2002)

origatoARB<$100

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4,844.78

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$449.25

Record

41%

21-30 (51)

Both legs:

Astra Invicta$3,304.7834¢+$243

Team Liquid$1,54056¢+$206.25

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,132.83

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$203.45

Record

68%

69-32 (101)

errormargin3

Team Liquid

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$300.09

Record

54%

237-204 (441)

0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$28.99

Record

69%

75-33 (108)

maytopmay

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,033.57

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$519.08

Record

61%

278-177 (455)

para-VisionCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$3,669.33

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$198.34

Record

56%

204-161 (365)

momijidanCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$3,655.17

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$233.31

Record

51%

194-183 (377)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$57.74

Record

43%

333-443 (776)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$5,373.73

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$311.37

Record

56%

157-121 (278)

eblomixer

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,604.89

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$275.6

Record

57%

491-371 (862)

babyboy9

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$349.56

Record

54%

342-289 (631)

gxxyy

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,710.63

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$170.63

Record

69%

486-217 (703)

cat3xcat3x

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,434.49

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$521.91

Record

56%

324-256 (580)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

27 of 46 top traders (59%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.