Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner

33 of 51 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (65%) · Team Liquid at 84¢ · $168K held · ends Oct 29

Team Liquid84¢Astra Invicta16¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$167.6K

Combined PnL

$8.5K

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 83.6¢

+17% since entry · 33 traders

Research grade

Research candidateTeam Liquid at 84%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

33 of 51 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid84%

Astra Invicta16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid33 traders

Total Value$115.3K

Total Shares146,382

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Astra Invicta18 traders

Total Value$48.4K

Total Shares139,077

Combined PnL+$7.2K

Team Liquid — 65%Astra Invicta — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	Team Liquidavg 75.9¢	$17.5K	$17.6K	+$157.67	54% 474-405 (879)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Liquidavg 67.8¢	$14.0K	$16.9K	+$2.8K	58% 888-649 (1537)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Astra Invictaavg 39.9¢	$9.3K	$15.9K	+$6.6K	58% 1856-1333 (3189)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Liquidavg 66.2¢	$15.9K	$15.5K	-$420.73	57% 718-548 (1266)
KA KaguyaNgCTR	Astra Invictaavg 36.7¢	$5.0K	$9.2K	+$4.2K	49% 340-353 (693)
EX Excentrico	Team Liquidavg 67.4¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$159.51	64% 298-171 (469)
GX gxxyy	Team Liquidavg 76.6¢	$7.7K	$7.5K	-$210	69% 486-217 (703)
YA yadens	Team Liquidavg 83.8¢	$6.1K	$6.9K	+$800.92	70% 150-64 (214)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	Team Liquidavg 77.4¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$745.07	56% 157-121 (278)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	Astra Invictaavg 35.7¢	$7.1K	$5.4K	$-1.7K	45% 66-81 (147)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Astra Invictaavg 34.6¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$131.58	53% 38-34 (72)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Liquidavg 64¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$33.33	54% 1072-929 (2001)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Liquidavg 72.6¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$189.38	48% 793-844 (1637)
OR origatoCTR	Astra Invictaavg 30.3¢	$4.4K	$3.7K	-$700.19	41% 21-30 (51)
BA babyboy9	Team Liquidavg 63.4¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	-$483.85	54% 342-289 (631)
CO CoffeemaniaBets	Team Liquidavg 64.9¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$65.41	48% 30-33 (63)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Liquidavg 84.4¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$226.58	61% 521-340 (861)
PI pipipi150	Team Liquidavg 79.4¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$158.53	65% 1723-917 (2640)
II iii252	Team Liquidavg 89.3¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$21.02	57% 1112-856 (1968)
FA facaigege	Team Liquidavg 72.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$15.46	48% 388-417 (805)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	Astra Invictaavg 25.1¢	$5.0K	$2.3K	$-2.7K	49% 1152-1196 (2348)
ST StakesForFunARB<$100	Astra Invictaavg 38.6¢	$17.2K	$2.1K	$-6.0K	64% 376-216 (592)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 84.1¢	$968.56	$1.1K	+$279.17
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 38.6¢	$7.2K	$972.81	$-6.2K
0X 0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492	Team Liquidavg 85.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$8.74	69% 75-33 (108)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 69¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$51.47	85% 587-107 (694)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 69¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$253.44
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 20.4¢	$698.15	$496.19	-$201.97
SkritopoolniyCTR	Astra Invictaavg 26.7¢	$2.6K	$1.6K	$-1.0K	48% 600-640 (1240)

pnhct

Team Liquid

Invested

$17,458.06

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$157.67

Record

54%

474-405 (879)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Liquid

Invested

$14,043.37

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

58%

888-649 (1537)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$9,345.69

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

58%

1856-1333 (3189)

Sisyphus-

Team Liquid

Invested

$15,936

Value

$15.5K

PnL

-$420.73

Record

57%

718-548 (1266)

KaguyaNgCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4,957.78

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

49%

340-353 (693)

Excentrico

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,197.45

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$159.51

Record

64%

298-171 (469)

gxxyy

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,660

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$210

Record

69%

486-217 (703)

yadens

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,100

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$800.92

Record

70%

150-64 (214)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$5,979.08

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$745.07

Record

56%

157-121 (278)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$7,150

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

45%

66-81 (147)

luckycat888888CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$5,126.71

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$131.58

Record

53%

38-34 (72)

GeorgeRe

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,266.22

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$33.33

Record

54%

1072-929 (2001)

RandomVibecoder

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,679.98

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$189.38

Record

48%

793-844 (1637)

origatoCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4,383.91

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$700.19

Record

41%

21-30 (51)

babyboy9

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,055.02

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$483.85

Record

54%

342-289 (631)

CoffeemaniaBets

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$65.41

Record

48%

30-33 (63)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,907.21

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$226.58

Record

61%

521-340 (861)

pipipi150

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,481.94

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$158.53

Record

65%

1723-917 (2640)

iii252

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,331.44

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$21.02

Record

57%

1112-856 (1968)

facaigege

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,320.54

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$15.46

Record

48%

388-417 (805)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$5,036.01

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

49%

1152-1196 (2348)

StakesForFunARB<$100

Astra Invicta

Invested

$17,154.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

64%

376-216 (592)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$968.5684.1¢+$279.17

Astra Invicta$7,216.1138.6¢$-6.2K

0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$8.74

Record

69%

75-33 (108)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,757.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$51.47

Record

85%

587-107 (694)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$1,059.8469¢+$253.44

Astra Invicta$698.1520.4¢-$201.97

SkritopoolniyCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$2,604.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

48%

600-640 (1240)

Research grade

Research candidateTeam Liquid at 84%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

33 of 51 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.3%

83.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.