Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Astra Invicta (+1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (60%) · Team Liquid at 68¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Team Liquid
5
Team Liquid 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$51.01
42.4¢ → 68¢
+60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Liquid at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100 | Astra Invictaavg 49.2¢ | $903.3 | $904.85 | +$1.55 | 51% 1783-1713 (3496) |
| └ Astra Invicta leg | Astra Invictaavg 49.2¢ | $681.74 | $692.22 | +$10.48 | |
| └ Team Liquid leg | Team Liquidavg 52.1¢ | $221.56 | $212.63 | -$8.93 | |
WE wewbo | Team Liquidavg 39¢ | $335.5 | $341 | +$5.5 | 52% 140-131 (271) |
BA babyboy9 | Team Liquidavg 64.4¢ | $164.25 | $127.5 | -$36.75 | 54% 342-289 (631) |
AS astapzippoCTR | Astra Invictaavg 59¢ | $147.5 | $125 | -$22.5 | 56% 2134-1678 (3812) |
 iceblue- | Team Liquidavg 36.9¢ | $92.99 | $101.68 | +$8.69 | 43% 803-1068 (1871) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Astra Invictaavg 68¢ | $22.5 | $16.55 | -$5.95 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
Invested
$903.3
Value
$904.85
PnL
+$1.55
Record
51%
1783-1713 (3496)
Both legs:
Invested
$335.5
Value
$341
PnL
+$5.5
Record
52%
140-131 (271)
Invested
$164.25
Value
$127.5
PnL
-$36.75
Record
54%
342-289 (631)
Invested
$147.5
Value
$125
PnL
-$22.5
Record
56%
2134-1678 (3812)
iceblue-Invested
$92.99
Value
$101.68
PnL
+$8.69
Record
43%
803-1068 (1871)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$16.55
PnL
-$5.95
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.