Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (50%) · Team Liquid at 67¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 29

Team Liquid67¢Astra Invicta33¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 50%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$78.77

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 66.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid67%

Astra Invicta34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid3 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares11,395

Combined PnL-$124.71

Astra Invicta3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,105

Combined PnL+$45.94

Team Liquid — 50%Astra Invicta — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR TrippleEX	Team Liquidavg 66.1¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	-$57.34	57% 288-213 (501)
VI vibing123CTR	Astra Invictaavg 33¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$28.96	52% 1553-1433 (2986)
0X 0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184	Team Liquidavg 67¢	$725.52	$665.96	-$59.56	54% 127-110 (237)
Basquetipster	Team Liquidavg 64¢	$200	$192.19	-$7.81	68% 1660-764 (2424)
AS astapzippoCTR	Astra Invictaavg 33¢	$99.33	$115.89	+$16.56	56% 2133-1677 (3810)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Astra Invictaavg 35¢	$4.29	$4.72	+$0.43	49% 18804-19198 (38002)

TrippleEX

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,607.34

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$57.34

Record

57%

288-213 (501)

vibing123CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,911.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$28.96

Record

52%

1553-1433 (2986)

0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184

Team Liquid

Invested

$725.52

Value

$665.96

PnL

-$59.56

Record

54%

127-110 (237)

Basquetipster

Team Liquid

Invested

$200

Value

$192.19

PnL

-$7.81

Record

68%

1660-764 (2424)

astapzippoCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$99.33

Value

$115.89

PnL

+$16.56

Record

56%

2133-1677 (3810)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4.29

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

18804-19198 (38002)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.