Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

20 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (61%) · Team Spirit at 73¢ · $78K held · ends Nov 16

LGD Gaming28¢Team Spirit72¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 61%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$77.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 72.5¢

+5% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

20 of 33 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LGD Gaming28%

Team Spirit73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit20 traders

Total Value$46.1K

Total Shares66,761

Combined PnL-$312.18

LGD Gaming13 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares87,784

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Team Spirit — 61%LGD Gaming — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Spirit 75% · 4

Aligned

sniperLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTeam Spirit 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 59% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	Team Spiritavg 69.9¢	$16.0K	$15.2K	-$786.85	53% 728-650 (1378)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LGD Gamingavg 31.2¢	$11.2K	$9.5K	$-1.7K	47% 489-549 (1038)
dodsterbot	Team Spiritavg 65.2¢	$7.3K	$7.8K	+$533.03	45% 517-625 (1142)
Valen9CTR	LGD Gamingavg 29.8¢	$5.2K	$5.9K	+$642.86	7% 2-27 (29)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 70.8¢	$5.5K	$5.7K	+$211.57	30% 39-90 (129)
DO DotaBotReborn	Team Spiritavg 68.1¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$118.41	71% 63-26 (89)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	LGD Gamingavg 33.7¢	$4.6K	$4.2K	-$440	17% 38-190 (228)
GE GEAEWCTR	LGD Gamingavg 30.6¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$9.28	64% 27-15 (42)
JE jelly2026	Team Spiritavg 71¢	$4.4K	$3.1K	-$269.48	54% 107-92 (199)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 65.6¢	$3.6K	$2.9K	+$539.97	17% 45-223 (268)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 25.5¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$373.98
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 65.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$165.99
TO TommyLeePeeca	Team Spiritavg 68¢	$5.2K	$2.6K	+$159.82	24% 77-241 (318)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Spiritavg 70.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$56.84	26% 60-169 (229)
WH whosayCTR	LGD Gamingavg 31.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$122.41	69% 64-29 (93)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 29.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.01	57% 112-83 (195)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 29.7¢	$657.51	$664.63	+$7.11
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 68¢	$610.87	$628.77	+$17.9
JA JabamiYumekosRBQCTR	LGD Gamingavg 31.1¢	$960.47	$1.0K	+$72.92	70% 31-13 (44)
GO GooGooGaga1	Team Spiritavg 67¢	$984.25	$976.9	-$7.35	52% 31-29 (60)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 73¢	$1.0K	$958.9	-$41.1	12% 18-138 (156)
KA KaguyaNg	Team Spiritavg 74¢	$792.29	$749.47	-$42.83	— 8-6 (14)
TR trgparking	Team Spiritavg 69¢	$552	$560	+$8	21% 6-22 (28)
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 72¢	$538.35	$555	+$16.65	69% 90-41 (131)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 72¢	$399.6	$388.5	-$11.1
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 25¢	$138.75	$166.5	+$27.75
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 68.8¢	$538.54	$541.08	+$2.54	56% 4194-3285 (7479)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 68.8¢	$419.49	$405.44	-$14.05
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 29.4¢	$119.05	$135.64	+$16.59
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Spiritavg 70¢	$541.73	$514.64	-$27.09	47% 676-773 (1449)
Hawk.live	Team Spiritavg 72¢	$365.14	$372.75	+$7.61	57% 703-528 (1231)
VV VVVSSPCTR	LGD Gamingavg 30¢	$327.9	$366.15	+$38.25	36% 44-78 (122)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 37.8¢	$2.0K	$312.16	-$38.29	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 37.8¢	$249.2	$201.19	-$234.76
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 64¢	$102.18	$110.97	+$196.47

GeorgeRe

Team Spirit

Invested

$16,016.51

Value

$15.2K

PnL

-$786.85

Record

53%

728-650 (1378)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$11,200

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

47%

489-549 (1038)

dodsterbot

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,298.74

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$533.03

Record

45%

517-625 (1142)

Valen9CTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$5,224.8

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$642.86

Record

2-27 (29)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$211.57

Record

30%

39-90 (129)

DotaBotReborn

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,038.04

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$118.41

Record

71%

63-26 (89)

r2d2v2CTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$4,648.96

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$440

Record

17%

38-190 (228)

GEAEWCTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$3,241.64

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$9.28

Record

64%

27-15 (42)

jelly2026

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,422.25

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$269.48

Record

54%

107-92 (199)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,622.15

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$539.97

Record

17%

45-223 (268)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$1,194.1525.5¢+$373.98

Team Spirit$1,268.7365.6¢+$165.99

TommyLeePeeca

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,233.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$159.82

Record

24%

77-241 (318)

qwerqr1251251

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$56.84

Record

26%

60-169 (229)

whosayCTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,611.13

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$122.41

Record

69%

64-29 (93)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,268.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.01

Record

57%

112-83 (195)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$657.5129.7¢+$7.11

Team Spirit$610.8768¢+$17.9

JabamiYumekosRBQCTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$960.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$72.92

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

GooGooGaga1

Team Spirit

Invested

$984.25

Value

$976.9

PnL

-$7.35

Record

52%

31-29 (60)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,000

Value

$958.9

PnL

-$41.1

Record

12%

18-138 (156)

KaguyaNg

Team Spirit

Invested

$792.29

Value

$749.47

PnL

-$42.83

Record

—

8-6 (14)

trgparking

Team Spirit

Invested

$552

Value

$560

PnL

+$8

Record

21%

6-22 (28)

pipipi150ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$538.35

Value

$555

PnL

+$16.65

Record

69%

90-41 (131)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$399.672¢-$11.1

LGD Gaming$138.7525¢+$27.75

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$538.54

Value

$541.08

PnL

+$2.54

Record

56%

4194-3285 (7479)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$419.4968.8¢-$14.05

LGD Gaming$119.0529.4¢+$16.59

omnibus-076daa

Team Spirit

Invested

$541.73

Value

$514.64

PnL

-$27.09

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

Hawk.live

Team Spirit

Invested

$365.14

Value

$372.75

PnL

+$7.61

Record

57%

703-528 (1231)

VVVSSPCTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$327.9

Value

$366.15

PnL

+$38.25

Record

36%

44-78 (122)

NotJumpARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,962.97

Value

$312.16

PnL

-$38.29

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$249.237.8¢-$234.76

Team Spirit$102.1864¢+$196.47

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

20 of 33 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Spirit 75% · 4

Aligned

sniperLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTeam Spirit 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 59% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.