Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (50%) · Team Spirit at 77¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16

LGD Gaming24¢Team Spirit76¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 50%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$46.25

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 76.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LGD Gaming24%

Team Spirit77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit5 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares14,364

Combined PnL-$52.43

LGD Gaming5 traders

Total Value$280.37

Total Shares1,219

Combined PnL+$6.18

Team Spirit — 50%LGD Gaming — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLGD Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000LGD Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Team Spiritavg 76¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$0	61% 1209-766 (1975)
JU JuiceFarm	Team Spiritavg 78¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$39.8	58% 69-51 (120)
RR rrooster	Team Spiritavg 76¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.31	50% 60-60 (120)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Team Spiritavg 77¢	$632	$627.9	-$4.1	30% 495-1136 (1631)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	LGD Gamingavg 22¢	$220	$230	+$10	47% 41-47 (88)
SU suntori<$100	Team Spiritavg 77¢	$62.26	$61.05	-$1.21	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 24¢	$29.28	$28.06	-$1.22	43% 246-326 (572)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 26¢	$21.13	$18.69	-$2.44	46% 653-760 (1413)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 24¢	$2.4	$2.3	-$0.1	43% 867-1151 (2018)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 23¢	$1.38	$1.32	-$0.06	23% 73-238 (311)

vibing123

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,600

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1209-766 (1975)

JuiceFarm

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,559.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$39.8

Record

58%

69-51 (120)

rrooster

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,111.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.31

Record

50%

60-60 (120)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Team Spirit

Invested

$632

Value

$627.9

PnL

-$4.1

Record

30%

495-1136 (1631)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$220

Value

$230

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

41-47 (88)

suntori<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$62.26

Value

$61.05

PnL

-$1.21

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$29.28

Value

$28.06

PnL

-$1.22

Record

43%

246-326 (572)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$21.13

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$2.44

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.06

Record

23%

73-238 (311)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLGD Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000LGD Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.