Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LEGION, while the market favors HULIGANI (74%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (54%) · LEGION at 27¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2

LEGION27¢HULIGANI73¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 26.5¢

-54% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidLEGION at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

LEGION27%

HULIGANI74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares12,538

Combined PnL$-2.6K

HULIGANI6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares12,576

Combined PnL+$38.57

LEGION — 54%HULIGANI — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LEGIONavg 58.2¢	$6.5K	$3.9K	$-2.6K	58% 911-654 (1565)
VI vibing123	HULIGANIavg 39.8¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$80.12	52% 1579-1466 (3045)
PN pnhctARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 51.9¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$205.32	53% 541-473 (1014)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 51.9¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$686.35
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 43.6¢	$1.2K	$746.43	-$481.03
AM ameisgoat11	HULIGANIavg 58.7¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$88.4	52% 7637-6912 (14549)
PO pol2131CTR	LEGIONavg 65¢	$259.99	$247.99	-$22	45% 412-503 (915)
GA GaditimaCTR	LEGIONavg 52.8¢	$210.74	$243.64	+$32.9	48% 6235-6891 (13126)
GOLDCRYPT12CTR	LEGIONavg 52¢	$212.2	$191.45	+$36.58	51% 977-923 (1900)
38 38791873984189	HULIGANIavg 40¢	$195.5	$150.4	+$31.03	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 44.6¢	$60.68	$40.81	-$19.86	47% 10052-11159 (21211)
SU suntori<$100	HULIGANIavg 67¢	$29.09	$28.66	-$0.43	45% 12892-15654 (28546)
CA calculate10CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 27.7¢	$27.66	$27.48	-$0.18	53% 1237-1083 (2320)
LO lonmi2511<$100	HULIGANIavg 66¢	$23.1	$22.93	-$0.18	62% 1226-749 (1975)
SE sentrio<$100	HULIGANIavg 67¢	$17.86	$17.72	-$0.13	50% 24998-24718 (49716)
poshposhCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 58¢	$16.1	$16.93	+$0.83	58% 11427-8282 (19709)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LEGION

Invested

$6,500

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

58%

911-654 (1565)

vibing123

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,974.34

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$80.12

Record

52%

1579-1466 (3045)

pnhctARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,875.44

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$205.32

Record

53%

541-473 (1014)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$1,647.9951.9¢+$686.35

LEGION$1,227.4643.6¢-$481.03

ameisgoat11

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,896.44

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$88.4

Record

52%

7637-6912 (14549)

pol2131CTR

LEGION

Invested

$259.99

Value

$247.99

PnL

-$22

Record

45%

412-503 (915)

GaditimaCTR

LEGION

Invested

$210.74

Value

$243.64

PnL

+$32.9

Record

48%

6235-6891 (13126)

GOLDCRYPT12CTR

LEGION

Invested

$212.2

Value

$191.45

PnL

+$36.58

Record

51%

977-923 (1900)

38791873984189

HULIGANI

Invested

$195.5

Value

$150.4

PnL

+$31.03

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$60.68

Value

$40.81

PnL

-$19.86

Record

47%

10052-11159 (21211)

suntori<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$29.09

Value

$28.66

PnL

-$0.43

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

calculate10CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$27.66

Value

$27.48

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

1237-1083 (2320)

lonmi2511<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$23.1

Value

$22.93

PnL

-$0.18

Record

62%

1226-749 (1975)

sentrio<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$17.86

Value

$17.72

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

24998-24718 (49716)

poshposhCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$16.1

Value

$16.93

PnL

+$0.83

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

Research grade

AvoidLEGION at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.