Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nemiga Gaming, while the market favors Inner Circle (81%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (47%) · Nemiga Gaming at 19¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 14

Inner Circle81¢Nemiga Gaming19¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 19¢

-63% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNemiga Gaming at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle 81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle81%

Nemiga Gaming19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle8 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares18,051

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Nemiga Gaming7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares30,384

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Inner Circle — 53%Nemiga Gaming — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	Inner Circleavg 45¢	$5.7K	$9.1K	+$3.4K	48% 534-581 (1115)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 49.9¢	$5.2K	$2.6K	$-2.6K	47% 468-534 (1002)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 55.6¢	$5.3K	$2.4K	$-2.9K	— 6-2 (8)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.9¢	$3.3K	$1.7K	$-1.6K	36% 58-104 (162)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 47.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$3.36	56% 4054-3166 (7220)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 47.6¢	$640.99	$746.63	+$105.63
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.8¢	$581.6	$472.6	-$109
MA madar78CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 45.4¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$698.75	46% 52-60 (112)
DO DotaBotReborn	Inner Circleavg 49.5¢	$654.33	$992.28	+$337.95	67% 48-24 (72)
SU suntori	Inner Circleavg 73.9¢	$940.95	$910.72	-$30.23	46% 2570-3056 (5626)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 50.4¢	$1.3K	$880.31	-$12.22	52% 808-738 (1546)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 50.4¢	$415.9	$470.25	+$55.75
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 50.4¢	$480.54	$410.06	-$67.97
CA calculate10	Inner Circleavg 55.6¢	$1.1K	$858.13	+$250.09	35% 69-129 (198)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Inner Circleavg 48¢	$446.56	$451.52	+$4.96	15% 38-208 (246)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	Inner Circleavg 34¢	$183.43	$385.75	+$202.32	13% 11-71 (82)
poshposhARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 53¢	$82.91	$88.66	+$5.76	48% 1089-1166 (2255)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 53¢	$57.67	$62.03	+$4.35
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 40.7¢	$25.23	$26.63	+$1.4
38 38791873984189	Inner Circleavg 54.1¢	$157.94	$75.75	-$9.69	48% 3195-3498 (6693)
PO pol2131CTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 20¢	$40	$49	+$9	37% 34-57 (91)
R2 r2d2v2CTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 54¢	$64.8	$30	-$34.8	13% 28-185 (213)
PA pauleta23<$100	Inner Circleavg 50.5¢	$20	$29.71	+$9.71	40% 425-644 (1069)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 39¢	$8.58	$10.12	+$1.54	45% 794-973 (1767)

RandomVibecoder

Inner Circle

Invested

$5,693.38

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

48%

534-581 (1115)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$5,200

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

47%

468-534 (1002)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$5,313.03

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

—

6-2 (8)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,256.34

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

36%

58-104 (162)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,222.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$3.36

Record

56%

4054-3166 (7220)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$640.9947.6¢+$105.63

Nemiga Gaming$581.654.8¢-$109

madar78CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,875.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$698.75

Record

46%

52-60 (112)

DotaBotReborn

Inner Circle

Invested

$654.33

Value

$992.28

PnL

+$337.95

Record

67%

48-24 (72)

suntori

Inner Circle

Invested

$940.95

Value

$910.72

PnL

-$30.23

Record

46%

2570-3056 (5626)

NotJumpARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,274.46

Value

$880.31

PnL

-$12.22

Record

52%

808-738 (1546)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$415.950.4¢+$55.75

Nemiga Gaming$480.5450.4¢-$67.97

calculate10

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,083.38

Value

$858.13

PnL

+$250.09

Record

35%

69-129 (198)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Inner Circle

Invested

$446.56

Value

$451.52

PnL

+$4.96

Record

15%

38-208 (246)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

Inner Circle

Invested

$183.43

Value

$385.75

PnL

+$202.32

Record

13%

11-71 (82)

poshposhARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$82.91

Value

$88.66

PnL

+$5.76

Record

48%

1089-1166 (2255)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$57.6753¢+$4.35

Nemiga Gaming$25.2340.7¢+$1.4

38791873984189

Inner Circle

Invested

$157.94

Value

$75.75

PnL

-$9.69

Record

48%

3195-3498 (6693)

pol2131CTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$40

Value

$49

PnL

+$9

Record

37%

34-57 (91)

r2d2v2CTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$64.8

Value

$30

PnL

-$34.8

Record

13%

28-185 (213)

pauleta23<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$20

Value

$29.71

PnL

+$9.71

Record

40%

425-644 (1069)

lryyyCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$8.58

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$1.54

Record

45%

794-973 (1767)

Research grade

AvoidNemiga Gaming at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle 81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.