Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (62%) · Nemiga Gaming at 78¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 14

Inner Circle23¢Nemiga Gaming77¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

$891.11

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 77.5¢

+52% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle23%

Nemiga Gaming78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming8 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares27,254

Combined PnL+$5.7K

Inner Circle5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares19,502

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Nemiga Gaming — 62%Inner Circle — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Nemiga Gamingavg 48.5¢	$11.4K	$17.9K	+$6.5K	47% 468-534 (1002)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Inner Circleavg 49.9¢	$6.1K	$2.1K	$-4.0K	48% 534-581 (1115)
NO nomoredream	Nemiga Gamingavg 77.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$37.15	39% 58-89 (147)
Medo3DCTR	Inner Circleavg 30.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$153.57	11% 33-257 (290)
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 78¢	$619.37	$631.58	+$12.21	69% 67-30 (97)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 78¢	$432.89	$427.34	-$5.55
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 21¢	$186.48	$204.24	+$17.76
NO NotJump	Nemiga Gamingavg 49¢	$736.7	$612.5	+$83.72	52% 802-736 (1538)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 47.4¢	$628.64	$612.28	-$16.36	56% 4054-3165 (7219)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 52.3¢	$286.52	$345.43	+$58.91
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 47.4¢	$342.13	$266.85	-$75.27
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Inner Circleavg 50¢	$458.82	$454.41	-$4.41	15% 38-208 (246)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Nemiga Gamingavg 66¢	$2.7K	$387.55	-$891.38	36% 58-104 (162)
R2 r2d2v2	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$250	$330	+$80	13% 28-185 (213)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	Inner Circleavg 54¢	$1.0K	$324.28	-$675.72	13% 11-71 (82)
CA calculate10	Nemiga Gamingavg 76.9¢	$530.95	$199.05	-$0.93	35% 68-129 (197)
38 38791873984189<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 69¢	$94.09	$48.89	-$8.51	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
poshposhARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 79¢	$54.77	$47.99	-$6.79	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 79¢	$28.11	$27.04	-$1.07
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 30.6¢	$26.67	$20.95	-$5.72
PA pauleta23<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 60.7¢	$10	$10.38	+$0.38	40% 425-643 (1068)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 28¢	$14.97	$9.88	-$5.1	45% 788-969 (1757)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$11,393.39

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

47%

468-534 (1002)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$6,092.72

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

48%

534-581 (1115)

nomoredream

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,278.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$37.15

Record

39%

58-89 (147)

Medo3DCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,385.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$153.57

Record

11%

33-257 (290)

pipipi150ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$619.37

Value

$631.58

PnL

+$12.21

Record

69%

67-30 (97)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$432.8978¢-$5.55

Inner Circle$186.4821¢+$17.76

NotJump

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$736.7

Value

$612.5

PnL

+$83.72

Record

52%

802-736 (1538)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$628.64

Value

$612.28

PnL

-$16.36

Record

56%

4054-3165 (7219)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$286.5252.3¢+$58.91

Inner Circle$342.1347.4¢-$75.27

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$458.82

Value

$454.41

PnL

-$4.41

Record

15%

38-208 (246)

UNIVERSEMVP

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,744.36

Value

$387.55

PnL

-$891.38

Record

36%

58-104 (162)

r2d2v2

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$250

Value

$330

PnL

+$80

Record

13%

28-185 (213)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,000

Value

$324.28

PnL

-$675.72

Record

13%

11-71 (82)

calculate10

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$530.95

Value

$199.05

PnL

-$0.93

Record

35%

68-129 (197)

38791873984189<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$94.09

Value

$48.89

PnL

-$8.51

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

poshposhARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$54.77

Value

$47.99

PnL

-$6.79

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$28.1179¢-$1.07

Inner Circle$26.6730.6¢-$5.72

pauleta23<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$10

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

40%

425-643 (1068)

lryyyCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$14.97

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$5.1

Record

45%

788-969 (1757)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.