Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (60%) · Nemiga Gaming at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Inner Circle42¢Nemiga Gaming58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 60%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$38.25

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 58.5¢

+43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

6 of 10 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle42%

Nemiga Gaming59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming6 traders

Total Value$916.93

Total Shares2,078

Combined PnL+$31.5

Inner Circle4 traders

Total Value$466.05

Total Shares905

Combined PnL+$6.75

Nemiga Gaming — 60%Inner Circle — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 49.9¢	$624	$627	+$3	52% 802-736 (1538)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 49.9¢	$361.5	$369.75	+$8.25
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$262.5	$257.25	-$5.25
JU JuiceFarm	Nemiga Gamingavg 39¢	$585	$555	-$30	59% 42-29 (71)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 41.4¢	$490.6	$478.08	+$12.08	41% 687-1004 (1691)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 41.4¢	$256.38	$269.18	+$12.54
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 56.6¢	$209.36	$208.9	-$0.46
alpheclabs2CTR	Inner Circleavg 48.9¢	$330.68	$344.64	+$13.96	45% 280-340 (620)
AU autob2ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 50.5¢	$262.18	$241.1	-$21.08	53% 49-44 (93)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 50.5¢	$181.68	$156.35	-$25.33
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 53.7¢	$80.5	$84.75	+$4.25
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Nemiga Gamingavg 37.6¢	$100	$155.44	+$55.44	47% 468-534 (1002)
poshposhARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 53.4¢	$134.64	$143.05	+$8.41	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 53.4¢	$95.79	$91.47	-$4.31
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 36.9¢	$38.86	$51.58	+$12.72
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nemiga Gamingavg 51.8¢	$122.57	$126.26	+$3.69	56% 4054-3165 (7219)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 57.4¢	$245.39	$124.14	+$2.3	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 57.4¢	$92.99	$91.51	+$11.42
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 52.5¢	$39.38	$32.63	-$9.13
CA calculate10	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.2¢	$100.71	$76.78	+$2.38	35% 68-129 (197)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 57¢	$49.03	$53.33	+$4.3	46% 479-564 (1043)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 51.5¢	$46.35	$45.9	-$0.45	43% 354-460 (814)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 62.2¢	$33.24	$22.17	-$11.07	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.85	-$0.05	50% 1579-1603 (3182)
LR lryyy<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 39¢	$1.56	$1.6	+$0.04	45% 788-969 (1757)

NotJumpARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$624

Value

$627

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

802-736 (1538)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$361.549.9¢+$8.25

Nemiga Gaming$262.550¢-$5.25

JuiceFarm

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$585

Value

$555

PnL

-$30

Record

59%

42-29 (71)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$490.6

Value

$478.08

PnL

+$12.08

Record

41%

687-1004 (1691)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$256.3841.4¢+$12.54

Nemiga Gaming$209.3656.6¢-$0.46

alpheclabs2CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$330.68

Value

$344.64

PnL

+$13.96

Record

45%

280-340 (620)

autob2ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$262.18

Value

$241.1

PnL

-$21.08

Record

53%

49-44 (93)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$181.6850.5¢-$25.33

Nemiga Gaming$80.553.7¢+$4.25

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$100

Value

$155.44

PnL

+$55.44

Record

47%

468-534 (1002)

poshposhARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$134.64

Value

$143.05

PnL

+$8.41

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$95.7953.4¢-$4.31

Nemiga Gaming$38.8636.9¢+$12.72

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$122.57

Value

$126.26

PnL

+$3.69

Record

56%

4054-3165 (7219)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$245.39

Value

$124.14

PnL

+$2.3

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$92.9957.4¢+$11.42

Inner Circle$39.3852.5¢-$9.13

calculate10

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$100.71

Value

$76.78

PnL

+$2.38

Record

35%

68-129 (197)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$49.03

Value

$53.33

PnL

+$4.3

Record

46%

479-564 (1043)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$46.35

Value

$45.9

PnL

-$0.45

Record

43%

354-460 (814)

suntoriCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$33.24

Value

$22.17

PnL

-$11.07

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Pan9X<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

1579-1603 (3182)

lryyy<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.04

Record

45%

788-969 (1757)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

6 of 10 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.