Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold InterActive Philippines (50%) · InterActive Philippines at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11

InterActive Philippines68¢Zero Tenacity32¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

InterActive Philippines

Consensus Traders

InterActive Philippines 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$3.19

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 68¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

InterActive Philippines68%

Zero Tenacity32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

InterActive Philippines2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,400

Combined PnL+$256.49

Zero Tenacity2 traders

Total Value$480.01

Total Shares1,610

Combined PnL-$259.68

InterActive Philippines — 50%Zero Tenacity — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInterActive Philippines 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000InterActive Philippines 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	InterActive Philippinesavg 65.4¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$255.14	46% 426-495 (921)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 46¢	$735.99	$477.03	-$258.96	— 12-7 (19)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 69.2¢	$405.13	$368.57	-$4.27	31% 278-610 (888)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 69.2¢	$303.93	$287.04	-$16.89
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 30.5¢	$71.92	$81.53	+$12.62
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 67.6¢	$141.36	$144.95	+$3.59	56% 3836-3007 (6843)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 67.6¢	$78.77	$76.17	-$2.6
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 31.5¢	$62.6	$68.78	+$6.18
CA calculate10ARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 69.2¢	$161.99	$126.96	-$2.32	22% 26-91 (117)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 69.2¢	$74.7	$70.58	-$6.04
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 32.3¢	$52.67	$56.39	+$3.72
CI cigarettes<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 67.5¢	$33.75	$35.09	+$1.34	53% 5656-5081 (10737)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 37¢	$3.7	$2.98	-$0.72	3% 16-448 (464)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$255.14

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

JuiceFarmCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$735.99

Value

$477.03

PnL

-$258.96

Record

—

12-7 (19)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$405.13

Value

$368.57

PnL

-$4.27

Record

31%

278-610 (888)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$303.9369.2¢-$16.89

Zero Tenacity$71.9230.5¢+$12.62

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$141.36

Value

$144.95

PnL

+$3.59

Record

56%

3836-3007 (6843)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$78.7767.6¢-$2.6

Zero Tenacity$62.631.5¢+$6.18

calculate10ARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$161.99

Value

$126.96

PnL

-$2.32

Record

22%

26-91 (117)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$74.769.2¢-$6.04

Zero Tenacity$52.6732.3¢+$3.72

cigarettes<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$33.75

Value

$35.09

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

5656-5081 (10737)

gt7238CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3.7

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$0.72

Record

16-448 (464)

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInterActive Philippines 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000InterActive Philippines 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that InterActive Philippines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.