Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs PuckChamp (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold InterActive Philippines (63%) · InterActive Philippines at 74¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 7

InterActive Philippines74¢PuckChamp26¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

InterActive Philippines

Consensus Traders

InterActive Philippines 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 74¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

InterActive Philippines74%

PuckChamp26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

InterActive Philippines5 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares23,181

Combined PnL+$2.8K

PuckChamp3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares10,604

Combined PnL$-1.1K

InterActive Philippines — 63%PuckChamp — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	InterActive Philippinesavg 61.4¢	$10.3K	$12.4K	+$2.1K	55% 791-650 (1441)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	InterActive Philippinesavg 60.2¢	$2.4K	$3.0K	+$559.73	58% 959-687 (1646)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	PuckChampavg 64¢	$7.0K	$2.6K	$-3.0K	54% 1335-1152 (2487)
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 64¢	$4.2K	$1.7K	$-3.1K
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 64.4¢	$770.23	$884.78	+$109.71
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	PuckChampavg 45.5¢	$4.3K	$2.5K	$-1.9K	48% 855-909 (1764)
Medo3DARB<$100	PuckChampavg 50.7¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$951.52	41% 182-264 (446)
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 50.7¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	$-1.1K
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 39.5¢	$203.11	$380.89	+$177.78
maytopmay	InterActive Philippinesavg 69.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$82.23	61% 311-201 (512)
GA GaditimaCTR	PuckChampavg 74.3¢	$593.81	$1.0K	+$421.2	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
BA BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100	PuckChampavg 70.2¢	$5.5K	$518.89	$-1.2K	62% 623-384 (1007)
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 70.2¢	$1.0K	$376.83	-$935.12
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 38.7¢	$74.32	$142.05	-$219.52
GT gt7238	InterActive Philippinesavg 70.5¢	$353.47	$371.21	+$17.74	45% 670-828 (1498)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	PuckChampavg 90¢	$465.39	$268.19	-$197.2	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 48.6¢	$108.29	$165.03	+$56.74
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 90¢	$357.1	$103.16	-$253.94
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	PuckChampavg 62.8¢	$367.84	$143.12	+$325.73	78% 69-20 (89)
CI cigarettes<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 28.8¢	$29.64	$76.22	+$46.58	50% 59994-58808 (118802)

Sisyphus-

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$10,295.75

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

55%

791-650 (1441)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$2,447.03

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$559.73

Record

58%

959-687 (1646)

calculate10ARB<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$7,002.96

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

54%

1335-1152 (2487)

Both legs:

PuckChamp$4,178.5864¢$-3.1K

InterActive Philippines$770.2364.4¢+$109.71

RandomVibecoderCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$4,336.03

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

Medo3DARB<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$2,523.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$951.52

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

Both legs:

PuckChamp$2,320.350.7¢$-1.1K

InterActive Philippines$203.1139.5¢+$177.78

maytopmay

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$1,199.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$82.23

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

GaditimaCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$593.81

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$421.2

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$5,536.16

Value

$518.89

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

62%

623-384 (1007)

Both legs:

PuckChamp$1,017.7270.2¢-$935.12

InterActive Philippines$74.3238.7¢-$219.52

gt7238

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$353.47

Value

$371.21

PnL

+$17.74

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

pauleta23ARB<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$465.39

Value

$268.19

PnL

-$197.2

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$108.2948.6¢+$56.74

PuckChamp$357.190¢-$253.94

GooGooGaga1CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$367.84

Value

$143.12

PnL

+$325.73

Record

78%

69-20 (89)

cigarettes<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$29.64

Value

$76.22

PnL

+$46.58

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that InterActive Philippines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.