Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Team Lynx (45%) · Team Lynx at 70¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 12

InterActive Philippines31¢Team Lynx69¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Lynx

Consensus Traders

Team Lynx 45%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 69.5¢

+33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

9 of 20 top traders (45%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

InterActive Philippines31%

Team Lynx70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Lynx9 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares34,811

Combined PnL+$2.7K

InterActive Philippines11 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares7,956

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Team Lynx — 45%InterActive Philippines — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Lynx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Lynx 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrInterActive Philippines 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000InterActive Philippines 60% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Lynxavg 48.1¢	$10.3K	$10.1K	-$197.56	48% 516-564 (1080)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 46.6¢	$3.7K	$5.1K	+$1.3K
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 48.1¢	$6.6K	$5.1K	$-1.5K
MA madar78	Team Lynxavg 51¢	$13.8K	$9.7K	+$1.6K	43% 37-49 (86)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Lynxavg 46.8¢	$10.7K	$5.5K	+$2.1K	30% 38-90 (128)
Medo3D	Team Lynxavg 47¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$638.3	10% 28-241 (269)
DO DotaBotReborn	Team Lynxavg 72.5¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$99.35	66% 40-21 (61)
SU suntoriCTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 58¢	$3.2K	$1.4K	$-1.3K	47% 1666-1892 (3558)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Lynxavg 69.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$9.49	57% 533-403 (936)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Team Lynxavg 81.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$92.55	38% 494-814 (1308)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 24.5¢	$246.42	$633.04	+$386.62
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 81.3¢	$879.6	$400.43	-$479.17
poshposhARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 47.8¢	$835.26	$745.31	-$89.95	47% 549-607 (1156)
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 51.3¢	$282.96	$375.3	+$92.35
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 47.8¢	$552.31	$370	-$182.3
GA GaditimaARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 52.8¢	$815	$637.5	-$177.5	47% 169-191 (360)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 52.8¢	$634	$450	-$184
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 60.3¢	$181	$187.5	+$6.5
NO NotJumpARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 44.1¢	$689.98	$532.5	+$74.5	54% 475-399 (874)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 44.1¢	$275.58	$393.75	+$140.75
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 48.7¢	$182.5	$138.75	-$66.25
Tolkonevminus3CTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 50.9¢	$941.26	$495.35	-$245.38	65% 36-19 (55)
Skritopoolniy	Team Lynxavg 51¢	$514.3	$373.12	-$141.18	8% 33-369 (402)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Lynxavg 71.1¢	$405.84	$352.87	-$52.97	56% 3907-3074 (6981)
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 71.1¢	$230.9	$219.22	-$11.68
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 42.5¢	$174.94	$133.65	-$41.28
PO pol2131CTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 31.2¢	$156	$315	+$159	42% 27-38 (65)
LR lryyyARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 40.7¢	$276.88	$308.04	+$31.16	44% 405-509 (914)
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 47.3¢	$132.44	$175.07	+$42.64
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 40.7¢	$144.44	$132.96	-$11.47
MR MrConsistencyCTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 46.9¢	$291.64	$192.67	-$98.98	36% 14-25 (39)
PO PourpelNourpel	Team Lynxavg 70¢	$305.58	$161.52	-$144.06	55% 54-44 (98)
Tolkonevminus2	Team Lynxavg 66.8¢	$464.06	$144.5	+$21.01	42% 50-70 (120)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 62¢	$100	$101.61	+$1.61	9% 7-67 (74)
SL SlickRick123CTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 46.4¢	$252	$97.6	-$40.05	27% 185-494 (679)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 45.6¢	$160.43	$62.17	+$28.74	41% 265-378 (643)
CI cigarettesCTR	InterActive Philippinesavg 38.2¢	$182.82	$61.56	+$30.41	53% 6207-5499 (11706)
dips.CTR<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 60.4¢	$61.63	$61.1	+$2.44	45% 544-659 (1203)
maytopmay<$100	Team Lynxavg 74¢	$64.45	$32.22	-$32.22	18% 44-202 (246)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$10,322.9

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$197.56

Record

48%

516-564 (1080)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$3,746.3846.6¢+$1.3K

Team Lynx$6,576.5248.1¢$-1.5K

madar78

Team Lynx

Invested

$13,790.34

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

43%

37-49 (86)

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Lynx

Invested

$10,687.17

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

30%

38-90 (128)

Medo3D

Team Lynx

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$638.3

Record

10%

28-241 (269)

DotaBotReborn

Team Lynx

Invested

$2,041.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$99.35

Record

66%

40-21 (61)

suntoriCTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$3,223.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

Sisyphus-

Team Lynx

Invested

$1,210.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$9.49

Record

57%

533-403 (936)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$1,126.02

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$92.55

Record

38%

494-814 (1308)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$246.4224.5¢+$386.62

Team Lynx$879.681.3¢-$479.17

poshposhARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$835.26

Value

$745.31

PnL

-$89.95

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

Both legs:

Team Lynx$282.9651.3¢+$92.35

InterActive Philippines$552.3147.8¢-$182.3

GaditimaARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$815

Value

$637.5

PnL

-$177.5

Record

47%

169-191 (360)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$63452.8¢-$184

Team Lynx$18160.3¢+$6.5

NotJumpARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$689.98

Value

$532.5

PnL

+$74.5

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$275.5844.1¢+$140.75

Team Lynx$182.548.7¢-$66.25

Tolkonevminus3CTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$941.26

Value

$495.35

PnL

-$245.38

Record

65%

36-19 (55)

Skritopoolniy

Team Lynx

Invested

$514.3

Value

$373.12

PnL

-$141.18

Record

33-369 (402)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$405.84

Value

$352.87

PnL

-$52.97

Record

56%

3907-3074 (6981)

Both legs:

Team Lynx$230.971.1¢-$11.68

InterActive Philippines$174.9442.5¢-$41.28

pol2131CTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$156

Value

$315

PnL

+$159

Record

42%

27-38 (65)

lryyyARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$276.88

Value

$308.04

PnL

+$31.16

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

Both legs:

Team Lynx$132.4447.3¢+$42.64

InterActive Philippines$144.4440.7¢-$11.47

MrConsistencyCTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$291.64

Value

$192.67

PnL

-$98.98

Record

36%

14-25 (39)

PourpelNourpel

Team Lynx

Invested

$305.58

Value

$161.52

PnL

-$144.06

Record

55%

54-44 (98)

Tolkonevminus2

Team Lynx

Invested

$464.06

Value

$144.5

PnL

+$21.01

Record

42%

50-70 (120)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$100

Value

$101.61

PnL

+$1.61

Record

7-67 (74)

SlickRick123CTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$252

Value

$97.6

PnL

-$40.05

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$160.43

Value

$62.17

PnL

+$28.74

Record

41%

265-378 (643)

cigarettesCTR

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$182.82

Value

$61.56

PnL

+$30.41

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

dips.CTR<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$61.63

Value

$61.1

PnL

+$2.44

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

maytopmay<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$64.45

Value

$32.22

PnL

-$32.22

Record

18%

44-202 (246)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

9 of 20 top traders (45%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Lynx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Lynx 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrInterActive Philippines 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000InterActive Philippines 60% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Lynx wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.