Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold InterActive Philippines (40%) · InterActive Philippines at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
InterActive Philippines
5
InterActive Philippines 40%
$2.1K
$374.14
56.3¢ → 54.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralInterActive Philippines at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarmCTR | Amaru Gamingavg 35¢ | $559.99 | $879.98 | +$319.99 | 64% 14-8 (22) |
AM ameisgoat11 | InterActive Philippinesavg 51.4¢ | $710.25 | $752.64 | +$42.39 | 32% 285-613 (898) |
GT gt7238CTR | Amaru Gamingavg 28¢ | $117.9 | $231.59 | +$113.69 | 4% 17-452 (469) |
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | InterActive Philippinesavg 72.8¢ | $300 | $189.63 | -$110.37 | 46% 430-500 (930) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Amaru Gamingavg 24¢ | $6.53 | $14.95 | +$8.43 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
Invested
$559.99
Value
$879.98
PnL
+$319.99
Record
64%
14-8 (22)
Invested
$710.25
Value
$752.64
PnL
+$42.39
Record
32%
285-613 (898)
Invested
$117.9
Value
$231.59
PnL
+$113.69
Record
4%
17-452 (469)
Invested
$300
Value
$189.63
PnL
-$110.37
Record
46%
430-500 (930)
Invested
$6.53
Value
$14.95
PnL
+$8.43
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.