Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Team Allied - Game 1 Winner

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold InterActive Philippines (45%) · InterActive Philippines at 100¢ · $54K held · ends Nov 10

InterActive Philippines>99¢Team Allied<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

InterActive Philippines

Consensus Traders

InterActive Philippines 45%

Total Value

$53.6K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

InterActive Philippines100%

Team Allied0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

InterActive Philippines5 traders

Total Value$52.7K

Total Shares52,830

Combined PnL+$22.8K

Team Allied6 traders

Total Value$905.62

Total Shares52,357

Combined PnL$-20.8K

InterActive Philippines — 45%Team Allied — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Team Allied 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	InterActive Philippinesavg 56.3¢	$25.3K	$44.9K	+$19.6K	—
SI Sisyphus-	InterActive Philippinesavg 56.9¢	$3.9K	$6.9K	+$3.0K	—
LooksMaxxingxCTR	Team Alliedavg 44¢	$879.99	$689.99	-$190	—
maytopmay	InterActive Philippinesavg 58.7¢	$210.04	$357.55	+$147.51	—
TO TommyLeePeeca	InterActive Philippinesavg 62.6¢	$345.63	$339.51	-$6.12	—
PO PourpelNourpel	InterActive Philippinesavg 54¢	$180.05	$218.39	+$38.34	—
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Team Alliedavg 46¢	$250	$187.5	-$62.5	—
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	Team Alliedavg 38.1¢	$8.0K	$10.54	$-8.0K	—
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Alliedavg 43.3¢	$7.2K	$8.37	$-7.2K	—
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Alliedavg 43.9¢	$5.3K	$5.99	$-5.3K	—
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 33.4¢	$9.01	$3.24	-$5.77	—

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$25,299.97

Value

$44.9K

PnL

+$19.6K

Record

—

Sisyphus-

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$3,900.29

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

—

LooksMaxxingxCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$879.99

Value

$689.99

PnL

-$190

Record

—

maytopmay

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$210.04

Value

$357.55

PnL

+$147.51

Record

—

TommyLeePeeca

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$345.63

Value

$339.51

PnL

-$6.12

Record

—

PourpelNourpel

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$180.05

Value

$218.39

PnL

+$38.34

Record

—

r2d2v2CTR

Team Allied

Invested

$250

Value

$187.5

PnL

-$62.5

Record

—

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Team Allied

Invested

$8,032.54

Value

$10.54

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

—

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$7,240.19

Value

$8.37

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

—

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$5,260.62

Value

$5.99

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

—

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$9.01

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$5.77

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Team Allied 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that InterActive Philippines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.